TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089383
Played Sep 7Finished
Denys Pesternikov
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1151618118411118
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:21 and never touched — 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 16-18
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 103 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 71.6%
103 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 4–0 Ruslan Lazebnyi Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:21What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1924 vs Lazebnyi 1558
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 365 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 80% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Pesternikov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 90% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Pesternikov
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +3 · Lazebnyi -1
Pesternikov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.30 / Lazebnyi 3.40
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Pesternikov)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13089383
Pesternikov1.30
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 228 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it96% 127 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it85% 182 of 213
Lazebnyi3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 17 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePesternikov4wins
AwayLazebnyi0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderPesternikov leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov100%4 of 4
AwayLazebnyin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov4Lazebnyi0n = 4Pesternikov took 4 of 4
S2Pesternikov3Lazebnyi1n = 4Pesternikov took 3 of 4
S3Pesternikov3Lazebnyi1n = 4Pesternikov took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPesternikovLazebnyiP − LBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match40.229.2+11.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime587 / 1099 vs 52 / 10453.4%50%587 / 1099 vs 52 / 104Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.30/Lazebnyi 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.1%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov—1291111113R. Lazebnyi—101141342
WAug 22 · 09:35D. Pesternikov—1111113R. Lazebnyi—6950
WAug 21 · 13:05D. Pesternikov—1111113R. Lazebnyi—8470
WAug 20 · 20:30D. Pesternikov—11118113R. Lazebnyi—991171
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113WSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342WSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113WSep 3 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010450WSep 3 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.10711581D. Pesternikov1.6711611113WSep 3 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.201111113R. Haiseniuk4.339720
R. Lazebnyi10
WSep 7 · 13:25I. Romaniak1.8051170R. Lazebnyi1.911113113LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113LSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 17:35O. Napirko2.38611471R. Lazebnyi1.5311311113LSep 4 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk1.7311811123R. Lazebnyi2.008117101LSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342
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