TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084638
Played Sep 6Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210119117––––
Denys Pesternikov
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Denys Pesternikov below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 60 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 54.3%
60 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 139–144 Denys Pesternikov Ivan Kozachuk has won 139 of their 283 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
139-144 in 283
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 5 in 283, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1763 vs Pesternikov 1897
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 80% vs Pesternikov 100%
Pesternikov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 60% vs Pesternikov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +3 · Pesternikov +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesternikov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 2.10 / Pesternikov 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Pesternikov)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13084638
Kozachuk2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 101 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 79
Pesternikov1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 224 of 331
Up 2–0, closes it95% 124 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it85% 179 of 210
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk2wins
AwayPesternikov8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk33.3%1 of 3
AwayPesternikov85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S2Kozachuk5Pesternikov5n = 10split evenly
S3Kozachuk3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Kozachuk3Pesternikov6n = 9Pesternikov took 6 of 9
S5Kozachuk1Pesternikov2n = 3Pesternikov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukPesternikovK − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.842.2−6.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime548 / 1096 vs 584 / 109550%53.3%548 / 1096 vs 584 / 1095Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovKozachuk 2.10/Pesternikov 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.6%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 06:55I. Kozachuk—61112113D. Pesternikov—1131071
LAug 24 · 14:25I. Kozachuk—4630D. Pesternikov—1111113
LAug 18 · 07:05I. Kozachuk—91141182D. Pesternikov—118116113
LAug 17 · 14:35I. Kozachuk—10111031D. Pesternikov—12912113
LAug 16 · 22:30I. Kozachuk—571181D. Pesternikov—11116113
LAug 14 · 24:00I. Kozachuk—8111211102D. Pesternikov—116147123
LAug 11 · 07:05I. Kozachuk—5121131D. Pesternikov—111013113
LAug 10 · 14:35I. Kozachuk—118541D. Pesternikov—81111113
WAug 10 · 02:00I. Kozachuk—1161110133D. Pesternikov—611912112
LAug 6 · 22:30I. Kozachuk—1110591D. Pesternikov—91211113
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181WSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113WSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113WSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891LSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113WSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790WSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342WSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113WSep 3 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010450WSep 3 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.10711581D. Pesternikov1.6711611113WSep 3 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.201111113R. Haiseniuk4.339720LSep 1 · 08:55D. Pesternikov1.57118941I. Kozachuk2.2521111113
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