TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13068192
Played Sep 4Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111513211311––
Denys Pesternikov
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:48 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Denys Pesternikov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 72 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 63.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 50–83 Denys Pesternikov Serhii Rak has won 50 of their 133 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
50-83 in 133
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 33 in 133, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1817 vs Pesternikov 1871
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 60% vs Pesternikov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 60% vs Pesternikov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak -1 · Pesternikov +3
Pesternikov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 2.50 / Pesternikov 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Pesternikov)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13068192
Rak2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 37 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back9% 7 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Pesternikov1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 222 of 334
Up 2–0, closes it95% 122 of 128
Up 1–0, closes it84% 175 of 208
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak0wins
AwayPesternikov10wins
Pesternikov leads 10–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayPesternikov100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak1Pesternikov9n = 10Pesternikov took 9 of 10
S2Rak3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S3Rak3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Rak0Pesternikov7n = 7Pesternikov took 7 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away770%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakPesternikovR − PBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match25.838.6−12.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime491 / 894 vs 590 / 110754.9%53.3%491 / 894 vs 590 / 1107Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovRak 2.50/Pesternikov 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 07:05S. Rak—111991D. Pesternikov—11911113
LAug 21 · 02:00S. Rak—71030D. Pesternikov—1112113
LAug 18 · 05:35S. Rak—631151D. Pesternikov—11117113
LAug 17 · 13:05S. Rak—88110D. Pesternikov—1111133
LAug 17 · 24:30S. Rak—5112101D. Pesternikov—11611123
LAug 13 · 20:00S. Rak—421161D. Pesternikov—11118113
LAug 11 · 05:35S. Rak—6770D. Pesternikov—1111113
LAug 10 · 13:05S. Rak—211921D. Pesternikov—11711113
LAug 9 · 20:00S. Rak—118871D. Pesternikov—71111113
LAug 7 · 24:30S. Rak—441181D. Pesternikov—11118113
S. Rak10
WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370WSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671WSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361LSep 3 · 23:00S. Rak1.301111771R. Haiseniuk3.4071311113WSep 3 · 21:30S. Rak1.6711511113D. Shcherbak2.10811481WSep 3 · 20:00S. Rak1.33101112113R. Lazebnyi3.251251091WSep 1 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.44811781S. Rak2.6311711113
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113WSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342WSep 3 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010450WSep 3 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.10711581D. Pesternikov1.6711611113WSep 3 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.201111113R. Haiseniuk4.339720LSep 1 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.44811781S. Rak2.6311711113
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