TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084381
Played Sep 6Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811113116117––
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 76.3% is still 76.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
76.3%
76.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 68 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Serhii Rak at 76.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 11–5 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:08What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-5 in 16
Rak
Correct
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1827 vs Smyrnov 1549
Rak
Correct
both rated, 278 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 60% vs Smyrnov 20%
Rak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 60% vs Smyrnov 40%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +1 · Smyrnov -3
Smyrnov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.28 / Smyrnov 3.50
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Rak)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13084381
Rak1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 264 of 416
Up 2–0, closes it92% 129 of 140
Up 1–0, closes it81% 185 of 229
Smyrnov3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 118 of 286
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak8wins
AwaySmyrnov2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak100%6 of 6
AwaySmyrnov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak6Smyrnov4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S2Rak6Smyrnov4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S3Rak7Smyrnov3n = 10Rak took 7 of 10
S4Rak3Smyrnov0n = 3Rak took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakSmyrnovR − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.930.0+5.9per matchSweeps52+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime492 / 896 vs 391 / 79554.9%49.2%492 / 896 vs 391 / 795Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.28/Smyrnov 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.1%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 3 · 05:35S. Rak—1111113M. Smyrnov—8880
WJun 2 · 18:35S. Rak—1110811123M. Smyrnov—712115102
WMay 26 · 17:05S. Rak—4111111133M. Smyrnov—111393112
WMay 17 · 21:45S. Rak—1111113M. Smyrnov—5670
WMay 11 · 20:00S. Rak—1111113M. Smyrnov—7270
LMay 3 · 23:15S. Rak—10860M. Smyrnov—1211113
WApr 30 · 21:25S. Rak—1111113M. Smyrnov—6890
WApr 12 · 21:45S. Rak—101111113M. Smyrnov—129991
WMar 16 · 24:15S. Rak—1111113M. Smyrnov—8760
LFeb 23 · 18:55S. Rak—9880M. Smyrnov—1111113
S. Rak10
WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370WSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361LSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113LSep 3 · 23:00S. Rak1.301111771R. Haiseniuk3.4071311113WSep 3 · 21:30S. Rak1.6711511113D. Shcherbak2.10811481WSep 3 · 20:00S. Rak1.33101112113R. Lazebnyi3.251251091WSep 1 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.44811781S. Rak2.6311711113
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182WSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123LSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112LSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123
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