TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13093998
Played Sep 8Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115711911411––
Serhii Rak
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 69 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Serhii Rak at 59.3%
69 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 59–82 Serhii Rak Ivan Kozachuk has won 59 of their 141 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:04What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
59-82 in 141
Rak
Correct
gap of 23 in 141, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1747 vs Rak 1778
Rak
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 20% vs Rak 40%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 60% vs Rak 40%
Kozachuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk -2 · Rak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Rak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 2.25 / Rak 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Rak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13093998
Kozachuk2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 102 of 259
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 79
Rak1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 269 of 423
Up 2–0, closes it92% 133 of 144
Up 1–0, closes it81% 189 of 233
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk3wins
AwayRak7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk25%1 of 4
AwayRak66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk4Rak6n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S2Kozachuk4Rak6n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S3Kozachuk4Rak6n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S4Kozachuk2Rak7n = 9Rak took 7 of 9
S5Kozachuk2Rak1n = 3Kozachuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukRakK − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.640.4−4.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukRakBasisWin rate · lifetime551 / 1103 vs 498 / 90850%54.9%551 / 1103 vs 498 / 908Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakKozachuk 2.25/Rak 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 02:00I. Kozachuk—117361S. Rak—91111113
LSep 1 · 05:55I. Kozachuk—881151S. Rak—11117113
WAug 31 · 16:55I. Kozachuk—11411113S. Rak—811981
LAug 25 · 09:25I. Kozachuk—7670S. Rak—1111113
LAug 24 · 16:55I. Kozachuk—1011481S. Rak—12911113
WAug 18 · 09:35I. Kozachuk—411117113S. Rak—11931162
LAug 17 · 17:05I. Kozachuk—117841S. Rak—61111113
LAug 17 · 02:00I. Kozachuk—8611111S. Rak—11113133
LAug 14 · 02:00I. Kozachuk—11129792S. Rak—7101111113
WAug 11 · 09:35I. Kozachuk—511611163S. Rak—112115142
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 8 · 10:25I. Romaniak2.1011116113I. Kozachuk1.67871181LSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113LSep 8 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.2511140982D. Pesternikov1.578121111113WSep 8 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.3611119113O. Hura3.00571161LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181WSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113
S. Rak10
LSep 8 · 07:25I. Romaniak2.751111123S. Rak1.4046100WSep 8 · 06:25S. Rak1.331111113N. Kovalchuk3.255870LSep 8 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.5011811113S. Rak2.50811461WSep 7 · 18:55S. Rak1.301112113R. Lazebnyi3.4081080LSep 7 · 16:55D. Pesternikov1.501311113S. Rak2.5011550WSep 7 · 14:55I. Romaniak2.634380S. Rak1.441111113LSep 7 · 13:55S. Rak1.67811481D. Shcherbak2.1011711113WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113
Upcoming Matches
I. Kozachuk
Nothing scheduled
S. Rak
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