TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13093997
Played Sep 8Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113811116611811
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 86 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 24–23 Nazar Kovalchuk Nazar Kovalchuk has won 23 of their 47 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:04What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kozachuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-23 in 47
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1763 vs Kovalchuk 1596
Kozachuk
Wrong
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 40% vs Kovalchuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 60% vs Kovalchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk -1 · Kovalchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.80 / Kovalchuk 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kozachuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13093997
Kozachuk1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 133 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it92% 68 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 124
Kovalchuk1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 63 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk4wins
AwayKovalchuk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk75%3 of 4
AwayKovalchuk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kozachuk3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S3Kozachuk4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Kozachuk5Kovalchuk3n = 8Kozachuk took 5 of 8
S5Kozachuk2Kovalchuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukKovalchukKozachuk − KovalchukBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.741.1−4.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime551 / 1102 vs 364 / 71350%51.1%551 / 1102 vs 364 / 713Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.80/Kovalchuk 1.91
Miss
What we said
54.3%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk—49111172N. Kovalchuk—111183113
WJul 3 · 01:00I. Kozachuk—11117113N. Kovalchuk—571151
LJun 29 · 02:30I. Kozachuk—6260N. Kovalchuk—1111113
WJun 15 · 02:00I. Kozachuk—111110113N. Kovalchuk—681261
LJun 5 · 24:00I. Kozachuk—117751N. Kovalchuk—81111113
LJun 3 · 10:35I. Kozachuk—7960N. Kovalchuk—1111113
WJun 2 · 01:00I. Kozachuk—611511113N. Kovalchuk—11911992
LMay 19 · 24:30I. Kozachuk—691221N. Kovalchuk—111110113
LMay 14 · 20:00I. Kozachuk—810151372N. Kovalchuk—11121311113
WMay 10 · 22:45I. Kozachuk—1161111113N. Kovalchuk—91191382
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk2.25117941S. Rak1.5751111113LSep 8 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.2511140982D. Pesternikov1.578121111113WSep 8 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.3611119113O. Hura3.00571161LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181WSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113WSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980
N. Kovalchuk10
LSep 8 · 06:25S. Rak1.331111113N. Kovalchuk3.255870WSep 8 · 04:25I. Romaniak1.83811121382N. Kovalchuk1.831171411113WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113
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