TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13093981
Played Sep 8Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115118117––––
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:06 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Serhii Rak at 75.3%
53 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 40–16 Nazar Kovalchuk Nazar Kovalchuk has won 16 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:06What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-16 in 56
Rak
Correct
gap of 24 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1799 vs Kovalchuk 1596
Rak
Correct
both rated, 203 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 40% vs Kovalchuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 50% vs Kovalchuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak -1 · Kovalchuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Rak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.33 / Kovalchuk 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Rak)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13093981
Rak1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 269 of 423
Up 2–0, closes it92% 133 of 144
Up 1–0, closes it81% 189 of 233
Kovalchuk3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 63 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak9wins
AwayKovalchuk1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak100%7 of 7
AwayKovalchuk33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak7Kovalchuk3n = 10Rak took 7 of 10
S2Rak10Kovalchuk0n = 10Rak took 10 of 10
S3Rak7Kovalchuk3n = 10Rak took 7 of 10
S4Rak3Kovalchuk1n = 4Rak took 3 of 4
S5Rak2Kovalchuk1n = 3Rak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakKovalchukR − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.429.2+10.2per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime498 / 907 vs 364 / 71354.9%51.1%498 / 907 vs 364 / 713Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.33/Kovalchuk 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 06:25S. Rak—1111113N. Kovalchuk—5870
WAug 22 · 08:05S. Rak—1111113N. Kovalchuk—6980
WJun 28 · 20:00S. Rak—1311113N. Kovalchuk—11890
WJun 13 · 05:05S. Rak—1311113N. Kovalchuk—11750
LJun 5 · 02:30S. Rak—911101182N. Kovalchuk—111125113
WJun 3 · 07:35S. Rak—1111113N. Kovalchuk—5790
WJun 2 · 16:35S. Rak—1611113N. Kovalchuk—14350
WJun 1 · 23:00S. Rak—111199113N. Kovalchuk—88111122
WMay 19 · 02:00S. Rak—91111113N. Kovalchuk—118691
WMay 17 · 23:15S. Rak—311911113N. Kovalchuk—11811562
S. Rak10
LSep 8 · 07:25I. Romaniak2.751111123S. Rak1.4046100LSep 8 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.5011811113S. Rak2.50811461WSep 7 · 18:55S. Rak1.301112113R. Lazebnyi3.4081080LSep 7 · 16:55D. Pesternikov1.501311113S. Rak2.5011550WSep 7 · 14:55I. Romaniak2.634380S. Rak1.441111113LSep 7 · 13:55S. Rak1.67811481D. Shcherbak2.1011711113WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 8 · 04:25I. Romaniak1.83811121382N. Kovalchuk1.831171411113WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.