TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089321
Played Sep 7Finished
Ivan Romaniak
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411311811––––
Serhii Rak
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:01 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Romaniak above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 48 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Rak at 66.9%
48 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Romaniak 23–58 Serhii Rak Ivan Romaniak has won 23 of their 81 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:01What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-58 in 81
Rak
Correct
gap of 35 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Romaniak 1692 vs Rak 1802
Rak
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Romaniak 40% vs Rak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Romaniak 40% vs Rak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Romaniak -1 · Rak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRomaniak 2.63 / Rak 1.44
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Rak)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13089321
Romaniak2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 125 of 304
Down 0–1, comes back27% 49 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 110
Rak1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 267 of 420
Up 2–0, closes it92% 131 of 142
Up 1–0, closes it81% 187 of 231
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRomaniak2wins
AwayRak8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRomaniak40%2 of 5
AwayRak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Romaniak5Rak5n = 10split evenly
S2Romaniak4Rak6n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S3Romaniak4Rak6n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S4Romaniak3Rak3n = 6split evenly
S5Romaniak0Rak4n = 4Rak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRomaniakRakRomaniak − RakBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.939.6−5.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRomaniakRakBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 509 vs 496 / 90345.2%54.9%230 / 509 vs 496 / 903Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRomaniak 2.63/Rak 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 21:45I. Romaniak—5370S. Rak—1111113
WSep 1 · 06:55I. Romaniak—1111113S. Rak—7880
LAug 31 · 13:55I. Romaniak—7115111S. Rak—11811133
LAug 25 · 07:25I. Romaniak—11911772S. Rak—911911113
LAug 24 · 18:55I. Romaniak—6570S. Rak—1111113
WAug 21 · 24:30I. Romaniak—1211113S. Rak—10810
LAug 18 · 11:35I. Romaniak—137111162S. Rak—151177113
LAug 17 · 15:05I. Romaniak—11881172S. Rak—911118113
LAug 16 · 23:00I. Romaniak—11421552S. Rak—6111113113
LAug 11 · 11:35I. Romaniak—2111071S. Rak—11712113
I. Romaniak10
LSep 7 · 13:25I. Romaniak1.8051170R. Lazebnyi1.911113113WSep 7 · 11:55I. Romaniak2.10117811113D. Shcherbak1.6741111632WSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113LSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370LSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181LSep 1 · 08:25D. Shcherbak1.67911185113I. Romaniak2.10118161172WSep 1 · 06:55S. Rak1.507880I. Romaniak2.501111113WSep 1 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.44108100I. Romaniak2.631211123
S. Rak10
LSep 7 · 13:55S. Rak1.67811481D. Shcherbak2.1011711113WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370WSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671WSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361LSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113LSep 3 · 23:00S. Rak1.301111771R. Haiseniuk3.4071311113LSep 1 · 06:55S. Rak1.507880I. Romaniak2.501111113
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