TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088598
Played Sep 7Finished
Ivan Romaniak
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114711811116113
Denys Shcherbak
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:33 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIvan Romaniak above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 83 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Denys Shcherbak at 54.1%
83 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Romaniak 34–40 Denys Shcherbak Ivan Romaniak has won 34 of their 74 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:33What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Shcherbak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-40 in 74
Shcherbak
Wrong
gap of 6 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Romaniak 1711 vs Shcherbak 1773
Shcherbak
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Romaniak 20% vs Shcherbak 60%
Shcherbak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Romaniak 40% vs Shcherbak 70%
Shcherbak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Romaniak +1 · Shcherbak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Shcherbak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRomaniak 2.10 / Shcherbak 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Shcherbak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13088598
Romaniak2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 125 of 304
Down 0–1, comes back27% 49 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 110
Shcherbak1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 158 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it93% 91 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it77% 124 of 161
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRomaniak4wins
AwayShcherbak6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderShcherbak leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRomaniak60%3 of 5
AwayShcherbak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Romaniak5Shcherbak5n = 10split evenly
S2Romaniak2Shcherbak8n = 10Shcherbak took 8 of 10
S3Romaniak5Shcherbak5n = 10split evenly
S4Romaniak4Shcherbak2n = 6Romaniak took 4 of 6
S5Romaniak2Shcherbak3n = 5Shcherbak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRomaniakShcherbakR − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.238.20.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRomaniakShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 506 vs 322 / 62045.3%51.9%229 / 506 vs 322 / 620Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakRomaniak 2.10/Shcherbak 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 03:15I. Romaniak—11126113D. Shcherbak—9101151
LSep 1 · 08:25I. Romaniak—118161172D. Shcherbak—911185113
LAug 31 · 17:25I. Romaniak—7870D. Shcherbak—1111113
WAug 25 · 05:55I. Romaniak—881111113D. Shcherbak—11117272
LAug 24 · 13:25I. Romaniak—6480D. Shcherbak—1111113
WAug 21 · 17:35I. Romaniak—119119103D. Shcherbak—71141162
LAug 21 · 02:30I. Romaniak—77100D. Shcherbak—1111123
WAug 18 · 06:05I. Romaniak—1111113D. Shcherbak—9860
LAug 17 · 12:05I. Romaniak—118121062D. Shcherbak—2111012113
LAug 17 · 03:00I. Romaniak—78111192D. Shcherbak—111186113
I. Romaniak10
WSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113LSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370LSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181LSep 1 · 08:25D. Shcherbak1.67911185113I. Romaniak2.10118161172WSep 1 · 06:55S. Rak1.507880I. Romaniak2.501111113WSep 1 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.44108100I. Romaniak2.631211123WSep 1 · 04:25I. Kozachuk1.6791181232I. Romaniak2.101181110113LAug 31 · 18:25D. Pesternikov1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635580
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113WSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113WSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113WSep 1 · 08:25D. Shcherbak1.67911185113I. Romaniak2.10118161172
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