TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13054167
Played Sep 1Finished
Denys Shcherbak
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111181816511117
Ivan Romaniak
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:55 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 18-16
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 107 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Denys Shcherbak at 56.2%
107 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 39–33 Ivan Romaniak Ivan Romaniak has won 33 of their 72 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:55What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-33 in 72
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 6 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1770 vs Romaniak 1758
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 80% vs Romaniak 60%
Shcherbak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 60% vs Romaniak 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak +2 · Romaniak +3
Romaniak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Shcherbak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.67 / Romaniak 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Shcherbak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13054167
Shcherbak1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 151 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it93% 86 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it76% 118 of 155
Romaniak2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 123 of 305
Down 0–1, comes back27% 49 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 111
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak5wins
AwayRomaniak5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak66.7%4 of 6
AwayRomaniak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak6Romaniak4n = 10Shcherbak took 6 of 10
S2Shcherbak8Romaniak2n = 10Shcherbak took 8 of 10
S3Shcherbak5Romaniak5n = 10split evenly
S4Shcherbak2Romaniak4n = 6Romaniak took 4 of 6
S5Shcherbak2Romaniak4n = 6Romaniak took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakRomaniakS − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.439.6−0.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 603 vs 228 / 50051.9%45.6%313 / 603 vs 228 / 500Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.67/Romaniak 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 17:25D. Shcherbak—1111113I. Romaniak—7870
LAug 25 · 05:55D. Shcherbak—11117272I. Romaniak—881111113
WAug 24 · 13:25D. Shcherbak—1111113I. Romaniak—6480
LAug 21 · 17:35D. Shcherbak—71141162I. Romaniak—119119103
WAug 21 · 02:30D. Shcherbak—1111123I. Romaniak—77100
LAug 18 · 06:05D. Shcherbak—9860I. Romaniak—1111113
WAug 17 · 12:05D. Shcherbak—2111012113I. Romaniak—118121062
WAug 17 · 03:00D. Shcherbak—111186113I. Romaniak—78111192
LAug 11 · 10:05D. Shcherbak—4111114102I. Romaniak—118916123
LAug 10 · 17:35D. Shcherbak—14811992I. Romaniak—1211611113
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113WSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113WSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891
I. Romaniak10
WSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113LSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370LSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181WSep 1 · 06:55S. Rak1.507880I. Romaniak2.501111113WSep 1 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.44108100I. Romaniak2.631211123WSep 1 · 04:25I. Kozachuk1.6791181232I. Romaniak2.101181110113LAug 31 · 18:25D. Pesternikov1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635580LAug 31 · 17:25D. Shcherbak1.731111113I. Romaniak2.007870
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