TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084264
Played Sep 6Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115113117––––
Ivan Romaniak
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 48 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Serhii Rak at 66.9%
48 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 58–23 Ivan Romaniak Ivan Romaniak has won 23 of their 81 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
58-23 in 81
Rak
Correct
gap of 35 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1842 vs Romaniak 1725
Rak
Correct
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 60% vs Romaniak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 70% vs Romaniak 50%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +2 · Romaniak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Rak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.44 / Romaniak 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Rak)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084264
Rak1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 264 of 416
Up 2–0, closes it92% 129 of 140
Up 1–0, closes it81% 185 of 229
Romaniak2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 124 of 303
Down 0–1, comes back27% 49 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak8wins
AwayRomaniak2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak100%5 of 5
AwayRomaniak40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak5Romaniak5n = 10split evenly
S2Rak6Romaniak4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S3Rak6Romaniak4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S4Rak3Romaniak3n = 6split evenly
S5Rak4Romaniak0n = 4Rak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakRomaniakRak − RomaniakBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.633.9+5.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime494 / 898 vs 228 / 50355%45.3%494 / 898 vs 228 / 503Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.44/Romaniak 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak—1111113I. Romaniak—5370
LSep 1 · 06:55S. Rak—7880I. Romaniak—1111113
WAug 31 · 13:55S. Rak—11811133I. Romaniak—7115111
WAug 25 · 07:25S. Rak—911911113I. Romaniak—11911772
WAug 24 · 18:55S. Rak—1111113I. Romaniak—6570
LAug 21 · 24:30S. Rak—10810I. Romaniak—1211113
WAug 18 · 11:35S. Rak—151177113I. Romaniak—137111162
WAug 17 · 15:05S. Rak—911118113I. Romaniak—11881172
WAug 16 · 23:00S. Rak—6111113113I. Romaniak—11421552
WAug 11 · 11:35S. Rak—11712113I. Romaniak—2111071
S. Rak10
WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671WSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361LSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113LSep 3 · 23:00S. Rak1.301111771R. Haiseniuk3.4071311113WSep 3 · 21:30S. Rak1.6711511113D. Shcherbak2.10811481WSep 3 · 20:00S. Rak1.33101112113R. Lazebnyi3.251251091WSep 1 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.44811781S. Rak2.6311711113
I. Romaniak10
WSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113LSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181LSep 1 · 08:25D. Shcherbak1.67911185113I. Romaniak2.10118161172WSep 1 · 06:55S. Rak1.507880I. Romaniak2.501111113WSep 1 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.44108100I. Romaniak2.631211123WSep 1 · 04:25I. Kozachuk1.6791181232I. Romaniak2.101181110113LAug 31 · 18:25D. Pesternikov1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635580LAug 31 · 17:25D. Shcherbak1.731111113I. Romaniak2.007870
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