TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049455
Played Aug 31Finished
Denys Shcherbak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118117––––
Ivan Romaniak
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Denys Shcherbak at 54.1%
55 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 39–33 Ivan Romaniak Ivan Romaniak has won 33 of their 72 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:13What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-33 in 72
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 6 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1738 vs Romaniak 1699
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 40% vs Romaniak 80%
Romaniak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 60% vs Romaniak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak -3 · Romaniak +1
Shcherbak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Shcherbak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.73 / Romaniak 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Shcherbak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13049455
Shcherbak1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 150 of 256
Up 2–0, closes it92% 85 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it76% 117 of 154
Romaniak2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 122 of 301
Down 0–1, comes back28% 49 of 178
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak5wins
AwayRomaniak5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak66.7%4 of 6
AwayRomaniak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak6Romaniak4n = 10Shcherbak took 6 of 10
S2Shcherbak8Romaniak2n = 10Shcherbak took 8 of 10
S3Shcherbak5Romaniak5n = 10split evenly
S4Shcherbak2Romaniak4n = 6Romaniak took 4 of 6
S5Shcherbak2Romaniak4n = 6Romaniak took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakRomaniakS − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.439.6−0.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime311 / 600 vs 225 / 49751.8%45.3%311 / 600 vs 225 / 497Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.73/Romaniak 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 17:25D. Shcherbak—1111113I. Romaniak—7870
LAug 25 · 05:55D. Shcherbak—11117272I. Romaniak—881111113
WAug 24 · 13:25D. Shcherbak—1111113I. Romaniak—6480
LAug 21 · 17:35D. Shcherbak—71141162I. Romaniak—119119103
WAug 21 · 02:30D. Shcherbak—1111123I. Romaniak—77100
LAug 18 · 06:05D. Shcherbak—9860I. Romaniak—1111113
WAug 17 · 12:05D. Shcherbak—2111012113I. Romaniak—118121062
WAug 17 · 03:00D. Shcherbak—111186113I. Romaniak—78111192
LAug 11 · 10:05D. Shcherbak—4111114102I. Romaniak—118916123
LAug 10 · 17:35D. Shcherbak—14811992I. Romaniak—1211611113
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113WSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113WSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891
I. Romaniak10
WSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113LSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370LSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181LSep 1 · 08:25D. Shcherbak1.67911185113I. Romaniak2.10118161172WSep 1 · 06:55S. Rak1.507880I. Romaniak2.501111113WSep 1 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.44108100I. Romaniak2.631211123WSep 1 · 04:25I. Kozachuk1.6791181232I. Romaniak2.101181110113LAug 31 · 18:25D. Pesternikov1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635580
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