TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094001
Played Sep 8Finished
Denys Pesternikov
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118811114116––
Serhii Rak
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:06 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 64.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 83–50 Serhii Rak Serhii Rak has won 50 of their 133 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 13h before this match
Pesternikov beat Rak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:06What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
83-50 in 133
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 33 in 133, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1949 vs Rak 1791
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 80% vs Rak 60%
Pesternikov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 80% vs Rak 60%
Pesternikov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +3 · Rak +1
Pesternikov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Pesternikov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.50 / Rak 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Pesternikov)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13094001
Pesternikov1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 232 of 341
Up 2–0, closes it96% 130 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it86% 186 of 217
Rak2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 37 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back9% 7 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov10wins
AwayRak0wins
Pesternikov leads 10–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov100%9 of 9
AwayRakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov9Rak1n = 10Pesternikov took 9 of 10
S2Pesternikov7Rak3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S3Pesternikov7Rak3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Pesternikov7Rak0n = 7Pesternikov took 7 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home770%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovRakP − RBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.625.8+12.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovRakBasisWin rate · lifetime592 / 1105 vs 497 / 90653.6%54.9%592 / 1105 vs 497 / 906Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.50/Rak 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 07:05D. Pesternikov—11911113S. Rak—111991
WAug 21 · 02:00D. Pesternikov—1112113S. Rak—71030
WAug 18 · 05:35D. Pesternikov—11117113S. Rak—631151
WAug 17 · 13:05D. Pesternikov—1111133S. Rak—88110
WAug 17 · 24:30D. Pesternikov—11611123S. Rak—5112101
WAug 13 · 20:00D. Pesternikov—11118113S. Rak—421161
WAug 11 · 05:35D. Pesternikov—1111113S. Rak—6770
WAug 10 · 13:05D. Pesternikov—11711113S. Rak—211921
WAug 9 · 20:00D. Pesternikov—71111113S. Rak—118871
WAug 7 · 24:30D. Pesternikov—11118113S. Rak—441181
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 7 · 17:55I. Romaniak2.7571050D. Pesternikov1.401112113WSep 7 · 16:55D. Pesternikov1.501311113S. Rak2.5011550WSep 7 · 15:55D. Pesternikov1.2811118113D. Shcherbak3.50941161LSep 7 · 14:25D. Pesternikov1.531061171Y. Kravets2.3812117113WSep 7 · 12:25D. Pesternikov1.301116114113R. Lazebnyi3.4051881182WSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113WSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490
S. Rak10
WSep 8 · 06:25S. Rak1.331111113N. Kovalchuk3.255870WSep 7 · 18:55S. Rak1.301112113R. Lazebnyi3.4081080LSep 7 · 16:55D. Pesternikov1.501311113S. Rak2.5011550WSep 7 · 14:55I. Romaniak2.634380S. Rak1.441111113LSep 7 · 13:55S. Rak1.67811481D. Shcherbak2.1011711113WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370WSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671
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