TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088998
Played Sep 7Finished
Ivan Romaniak
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111012511––––
Denys Pesternikov
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:40 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Romaniak above · Denys Pesternikov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 56 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 66.1%
56 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Romaniak 31–40 Denys Pesternikov Ivan Romaniak has won 31 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:40What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-40 in 71
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 9 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Romaniak 1692 vs Pesternikov 1923
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 231 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Romaniak 60% vs Pesternikov 80%
Pesternikov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Romaniak 30% vs Pesternikov 80%
Pesternikov
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Romaniak +1 · Pesternikov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRomaniak 2.75 / Pesternikov 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Pesternikov)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13088998
Romaniak2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 125 of 304
Down 0–1, comes back27% 49 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 110
Pesternikov1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 228 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it96% 127 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it85% 182 of 213
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRomaniak3wins
AwayPesternikov7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRomaniak66.7%2 of 3
AwayPesternikov85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Romaniak3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S2Romaniak2Pesternikov8n = 10Pesternikov took 8 of 10
S3Romaniak3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Romaniak1Pesternikov2n = 3Pesternikov took 2 of 3
S5Romaniak2Pesternikov1n = 3Romaniak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricRomaniakPesternikovR − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match28.637.0−8.4per matchSweeps16−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRomaniakPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 510 vs 590 / 110345.3%53.5%231 / 510 vs 590 / 1103Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovRomaniak 2.75/Pesternikov 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.9%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 23:45I. Romaniak—12790D. Pesternikov—1411113
WSep 1 · 05:25I. Romaniak—1211123D. Pesternikov—108100
LAug 31 · 18:25I. Romaniak—5580D. Pesternikov—1111113
LAug 27 · 21:30I. Romaniak—11119392D. Pesternikov—961111113
LAug 25 · 08:55I. Romaniak—8430D. Pesternikov—1111113
LAug 24 · 15:25I. Romaniak—4920D. Pesternikov—1111113
WAug 21 · 15:35I. Romaniak—531112113D. Pesternikov—111151082
WAug 20 · 22:30I. Romaniak—115117113D. Pesternikov—91191132
LAug 18 · 08:05I. Romaniak—102120D. Pesternikov—1211143
LAug 17 · 16:35I. Romaniak—10560D. Pesternikov—1211113
I. Romaniak10
WSep 7 · 16:25I. Romaniak1.5711811113Y. Kravets2.25811581LSep 7 · 14:55I. Romaniak2.634380S. Rak1.441111113LSep 7 · 13:25I. Romaniak1.8051170R. Lazebnyi1.911113113WSep 7 · 11:55I. Romaniak2.10117811113D. Shcherbak1.6741111632WSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113LSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370LSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181LSep 1 · 08:25D. Shcherbak1.67911185113I. Romaniak2.10118161172
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 7 · 16:55D. Pesternikov1.501311113S. Rak2.5011550WSep 7 · 15:55D. Pesternikov1.2811118113D. Shcherbak3.50941161LSep 7 · 14:25D. Pesternikov1.531061171Y. Kravets2.3812117113WSep 7 · 12:25D. Pesternikov1.301116114113R. Lazebnyi3.4051881182WSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113WSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342
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