TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089075
Played Sep 7Finished
Denys Pesternikov
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012611117711––
Yaroslav Kravets
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:51 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Yaroslav Kravets below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 60.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 19–26 Yaroslav Kravets Denys Pesternikov has won 19 of their 45 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:51What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-26 in 45
Kravets
Correct
gap of 7 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1927 vs Kravets 1599
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 328 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 80% vs Kravets 60%
Pesternikov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 90% vs Kravets 60%
Pesternikov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +4 · Kravets +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kravets form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.53 / Kravets 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Pesternikov)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13089075
Pesternikov1.53
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 228 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it96% 127 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it85% 182 of 213
Kravets2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 71 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov5wins
AwayKravets5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov80%4 of 5
AwayKravets80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov5Kravets5n = 10split evenly
S2Pesternikov6Kravets4n = 10Pesternikov took 6 of 10
S3Pesternikov3Kravets7n = 10Kravets took 7 of 10
S4Pesternikov4Kravets1n = 5Pesternikov took 4 of 5
S5Pesternikov1Kravets2n = 3Kravets took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovKravetsP − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.234.3+0.9per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovKravetsBasisWin rate · lifetime588 / 1100 vs 237 / 47653.5%49.8%588 / 1100 vs 237 / 476Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.53/Kravets 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kravets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 25 · 09:35D. Pesternikov—511611133Y. Kravets—113119112
LJul 17 · 13:05D. Pesternikov—11114682Y. Kravets—861111113
WJun 27 · 05:05D. Pesternikov—111115113Y. Kravets—3131331
WJun 26 · 16:35D. Pesternikov—11116113Y. Kravets—671151
LJun 20 · 05:35D. Pesternikov—51161142Y. Kravets—118119113
WJun 13 · 09:05D. Pesternikov—1111113Y. Kravets—6460
WJun 12 · 14:05D. Pesternikov—1111133Y. Kravets—28110
LMay 16 · 07:35D. Pesternikov—51090Y. Kravets—1112113
LMay 15 · 14:35D. Pesternikov—6870Y. Kravets—1111113
LMay 9 · 07:05D. Pesternikov—12890Y. Kravets—1411113
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 7 · 15:55D. Pesternikov1.2811118113D. Shcherbak3.50941161WSep 7 · 12:25D. Pesternikov1.301116114113R. Lazebnyi3.4051881182WSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113WSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342WSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113WSep 3 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010450
Y. Kravets10
WSep 7 · 15:25Y. Kravets1.83111188123R. Lazebnyi1.83761111102WSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.301159101Y. Kravets3.4041111123WSep 4 · 15:35Y. Kravets1.501113113O. Napirko2.5081170LSep 4 · 14:35N. Hoshko1.501111133Y. Kravets2.5077110LSep 4 · 13:05Y. Kravets2.5011311672R. Haiseniuk1.50511911113WAug 29 · 10:35V. Plishylo1.809121017102Y. Kravets1.9111101215123WAug 29 · 09:35Y. Kravets2.386111211113R. Lazebnyi1.53116101372LAug 29 · 08:35Y. Kravets3.25122921N. Kovalchuk1.33101111113WAug 29 · 07:05Y. Kravets1.501191111113O. Napirko2.5011151352
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