TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089244
Played Sep 7Finished
Yaroslav Kravets
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171168118111210
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kravets to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Kravets above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 95 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Yaroslav Kravets at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Kravets 3–2 Ruslan Lazebnyi Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:42What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Lazebnyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kravets 1619 vs Lazebnyi 1577
Kravets
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kravets 80% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Kravets
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kravets 70% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Kravets
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kravets +4 · Lazebnyi +1
Kravets
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lazebnyi) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKravets 1.83 / Lazebnyi 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lazebnyi)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13089244
Kravets1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Lazebnyi1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKravets3wins
AwayLazebnyi2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKravets leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKravetsn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLazebnyi66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kravets2Lazebnyi3n = 5Lazebnyi took 3 of 5
S2Kravets2Lazebnyi3n = 5Lazebnyi took 3 of 5
S3Kravets3Lazebnyi2n = 5Kravets took 3 of 5
S4Kravets2Lazebnyi2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKravetsLazebnyiK − LBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match34.635.0−0.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKravetsLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 477 vs 53 / 10649.9%50%238 / 477 vs 53 / 106Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiKravets 1.83/Lazebnyi 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kravets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets—1191183R. Lazebnyi—711661
WAug 29 · 09:35Y. Kravets—6111211113R. Lazebnyi—116101372
LAug 15 · 07:05Y. Kravets—1011061R. Lazebnyi—12311113
WAug 14 · 14:05Y. Kravets—111011113R. Lazebnyi—612731
LAug 8 · 06:05Y. Kravets—2920R. Lazebnyi—1111113
Y. Kravets10
LSep 7 · 16:25I. Romaniak1.5711811113Y. Kravets2.25811581WSep 7 · 14:25D. Pesternikov1.531061171Y. Kravets2.3812117113WSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.301159101Y. Kravets3.4041111123WSep 4 · 15:35Y. Kravets1.501113113O. Napirko2.5081170LSep 4 · 14:35N. Hoshko1.501111133Y. Kravets2.5077110LSep 4 · 13:05Y. Kravets2.5011311672R. Haiseniuk1.50511911113WAug 29 · 10:35V. Plishylo1.809121017102Y. Kravets1.9111101215123WAug 29 · 09:35Y. Kravets2.386111211113R. Lazebnyi1.53116101372LAug 29 · 08:35Y. Kravets3.25122921N. Kovalchuk1.33101111113
R. Lazebnyi10
WSep 7 · 13:25I. Romaniak1.8051170R. Lazebnyi1.911113113LSep 7 · 12:25D. Pesternikov1.301116114113R. Lazebnyi3.4051881182LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113LSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 17:35O. Napirko2.38611471R. Lazebnyi1.5311311113LAug 29 · 09:35Y. Kravets2.386111211113R. Lazebnyi1.53116101372
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