TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089045
Played Sep 7Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210118––––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:40 and never touched — 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 60 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Serhii Rak at 71.6%
60 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 2–1 Ruslan Lazebnyi Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:40What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1802 vs Lazebnyi 1585
Rak
Correct
both rated, 217 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 40% vs Lazebnyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 50% vs Lazebnyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak -1 · Lazebnyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.30 / Lazebnyi 3.40
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Rak)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13089045
Rak1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 267 of 420
Up 2–0, closes it92% 131 of 142
Up 1–0, closes it81% 187 of 231
Lazebnyi3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 17 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeRak2wins
AwayLazebnyi1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderRak leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak1Lazebnyi2n = 3Lazebnyi took 2 of 3
S2Rak2Lazebnyi1n = 3Rak took 2 of 3
S3Rak2Lazebnyi1n = 3Rak took 2 of 3
S4Rak3Lazebnyi0n = 3Rak took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricRakLazebnyiR − LBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match42.036.3+5.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime496 / 904 vs 54 / 10854.9%50%496 / 904 vs 54 / 108Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.30/Lazebnyi 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.1%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 3 · 20:00S. Rak—101112113R. Lazebnyi—1251091
WAug 22 · 05:35S. Rak—81111113R. Lazebnyi—116591
LAug 20 · 21:30S. Rak—11751172R. Lazebnyi—311116113
S. Rak10
LSep 7 · 16:55D. Pesternikov1.501311113S. Rak2.5011550WSep 7 · 14:55I. Romaniak2.634380S. Rak1.441111113LSep 7 · 13:55S. Rak1.67811481D. Shcherbak2.1011711113WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370WSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671WSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361LSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113
R. Lazebnyi10
WSep 7 · 17:25R. Lazebnyi2.7511117113D. Shcherbak1.40671161LSep 7 · 15:25Y. Kravets1.83111188123R. Lazebnyi1.83761111102WSep 7 · 13:25I. Romaniak1.8051170R. Lazebnyi1.911113113LSep 7 · 12:25D. Pesternikov1.301116114113R. Lazebnyi3.4051881182LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113LSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661
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