TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088663
Played Sep 7Finished
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116117711116––
Denys Shcherbak
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:52 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Lazebnyi above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Denys Shcherbak at 69.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Lazebnyi 3–4 Denys Shcherbak Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:52What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Shcherbak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lazebnyi 1567 vs Shcherbak 1766
Shcherbak
Wrong
both rated, 199 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lazebnyi 40% vs Shcherbak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lazebnyi 40% vs Shcherbak 60%
Shcherbak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lazebnyi -1 · Shcherbak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Shcherbak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLazebnyi 2.75 / Shcherbak 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Shcherbak)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13088663
Lazebnyi2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 17 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Shcherbak1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 158 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it93% 91 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it77% 124 of 161
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeLazebnyi3wins
AwayShcherbak4wins
1 of 7 to a deciderShcherbak leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLazebnyin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayShcherbak66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lazebnyi1Shcherbak6n = 7Shcherbak took 6 of 7
S2Lazebnyi3Shcherbak4n = 7Shcherbak took 4 of 7
S3Lazebnyi4Shcherbak3n = 7Lazebnyi took 4 of 7
S4Lazebnyi1Shcherbak2n = 3Shcherbak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricLazebnyiShcherbakL − SBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match32.736.7−4.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLazebnyiShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime53 / 107 vs 323 / 62349.5%51.9%53 / 107 vs 323 / 623Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakLazebnyi 2.75/Shcherbak 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lazebnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi—10380D. Shcherbak—1211113
WSep 4 · 01:30R. Lazebnyi—1411113D. Shcherbak—12790
LAug 28 · 14:05R. Lazebnyi—611110D. Shcherbak—1113133
LAug 22 · 06:35R. Lazebnyi—4950D. Shcherbak—1111113
WAug 21 · 14:05R. Lazebnyi—811126113D. Shcherbak—119101172
LAug 21 · 01:30R. Lazebnyi—981291D. Shcherbak—111110113
WAug 8 · 10:05R. Lazebnyi—71111113D. Shcherbak—117881
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 7 · 18:55S. Rak1.301112113R. Lazebnyi3.4081080LSep 7 · 15:25Y. Kravets1.83111188123R. Lazebnyi1.83761111102WSep 7 · 13:25I. Romaniak1.8051170R. Lazebnyi1.911113113LSep 7 · 12:25D. Pesternikov1.301116114113R. Lazebnyi3.4051881182LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113LSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661
D. Shcherbak10
WSep 7 · 18:25Y. Kravets2.506780D. Shcherbak1.501111113LSep 7 · 15:55D. Pesternikov1.2811118113D. Shcherbak3.50941161WSep 7 · 13:55S. Rak1.67811481D. Shcherbak2.1011711113LSep 7 · 11:55I. Romaniak2.10117811113D. Shcherbak1.6741111632LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113
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