TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13093986
Played Sep 8Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181412011911811
Denys Pesternikov
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:05 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Denys Pesternikov below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 0-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 95 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 58.6%
95 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 139–144 Denys Pesternikov Ivan Kozachuk has won 139 of their 283 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:05What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
139-144 in 283
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 5 in 283, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1769 vs Pesternikov 1949
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 180 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 60% vs Pesternikov 80%
Pesternikov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 70% vs Pesternikov 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +1 · Pesternikov +4
Pesternikov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesternikov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 2.25 / Pesternikov 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Pesternikov)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13093986
Kozachuk2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 102 of 259
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 79
Pesternikov1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 232 of 341
Up 2–0, closes it96% 130 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it86% 186 of 217
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk2wins
AwayPesternikov8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk33.3%1 of 3
AwayPesternikov85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S2Kozachuk5Pesternikov5n = 10split evenly
S3Kozachuk3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Kozachuk3Pesternikov6n = 9Pesternikov took 6 of 9
S5Kozachuk1Pesternikov2n = 3Pesternikov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukPesternikovK − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.842.2−6.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime551 / 1101 vs 592 / 110550.1%53.6%551 / 1101 vs 592 / 1105Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovKozachuk 2.25/Pesternikov 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 06:55I. Kozachuk—61112113D. Pesternikov—1131071
LAug 24 · 14:25I. Kozachuk—4630D. Pesternikov—1111113
LAug 18 · 07:05I. Kozachuk—91141182D. Pesternikov—118116113
LAug 17 · 14:35I. Kozachuk—10111031D. Pesternikov—12912113
LAug 16 · 22:30I. Kozachuk—571181D. Pesternikov—11116113
LAug 14 · 24:00I. Kozachuk—8111211102D. Pesternikov—116147123
LAug 11 · 07:05I. Kozachuk—5121131D. Pesternikov—111013113
LAug 10 · 14:35I. Kozachuk—118541D. Pesternikov—81111113
WAug 10 · 02:00I. Kozachuk—1161110133D. Pesternikov—611912112
LAug 6 · 22:30I. Kozachuk—1110591D. Pesternikov—91211113
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113WSep 8 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.3611119113O. Hura3.00571161LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181WSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113WSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 8 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.171111113O. Hura4.508440WSep 8 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.5011811113S. Rak2.50811461WSep 7 · 17:55I. Romaniak2.7571050D. Pesternikov1.401112113WSep 7 · 16:55D. Pesternikov1.501311113S. Rak2.5011550WSep 7 · 15:55D. Pesternikov1.2811118113D. Shcherbak3.50941161LSep 7 · 14:25D. Pesternikov1.531061171Y. Kravets2.3812117113WSep 7 · 12:25D. Pesternikov1.301116114113R. Lazebnyi3.4051881182WSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970
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