TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13093989
Played Sep 8Finished
Ivan Romaniak
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118117611118––
Ivan Kozachuk
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Romaniak above · Ivan Kozachuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 57.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Romaniak 26–40 Ivan Kozachuk Ivan Romaniak has won 26 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:04What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kozachuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-40 in 66
Kozachuk
Wrong
gap of 14 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Romaniak 1682 vs Kozachuk 1736
Kozachuk
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Romaniak 40% vs Kozachuk 20%
Romaniak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Romaniak 50% vs Kozachuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Romaniak +2 · Kozachuk -3
Kozachuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRomaniak 2.10 / Kozachuk 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kozachuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13093989
Romaniak2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 126 of 307
Down 0–1, comes back27% 49 of 182
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 112
Kozachuk1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 133 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it92% 68 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRomaniak3wins
AwayKozachuk7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKozachuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRomaniak75%3 of 4
AwayKozachuk100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Romaniak4Kozachuk6n = 10Kozachuk took 6 of 10
S2Romaniak2Kozachuk8n = 10Kozachuk took 8 of 10
S3Romaniak5Kozachuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Romaniak2Kozachuk4n = 6Kozachuk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRomaniakKozachukR − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.537.3−5.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRomaniakKozachukBasisWin rate · lifetime233 / 515 vs 551 / 110445.2%49.9%233 / 515 vs 551 / 1104Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukRomaniak 2.10/Kozachuk 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 20:45I. Romaniak—571181I. Kozachuk—11115113
WSep 1 · 04:25I. Romaniak—1181110113I. Kozachuk—91181232
WAug 31 · 15:55I. Romaniak—11119113I. Kozachuk—991181
WAug 27 · 20:30I. Romaniak—1111113I. Kozachuk—7470
LAug 25 · 10:25I. Romaniak—87111182I. Kozachuk—111198113
LAug 24 · 12:25I. Romaniak—281231I. Kozachuk—111110113
LAug 18 · 05:05I. Romaniak—7540I. Kozachuk—1111113
LAug 17 · 18:05I. Romaniak—310110I. Kozachuk—1112133
LAug 17 · 01:00I. Romaniak—3580I. Kozachuk—1111113
LAug 11 · 05:05I. Romaniak—118671I. Kozachuk—91111113
I. Romaniak10
WSep 8 · 08:55I. Romaniak2.75721211113D. Pesternikov1.40111110982WSep 8 · 07:25I. Romaniak2.751111123S. Rak1.4046100LSep 8 · 05:55I. Romaniak1.364990O. Hura3.001111113LSep 8 · 04:25I. Romaniak1.83811121382N. Kovalchuk1.831171411113LSep 7 · 17:55I. Romaniak2.7571050D. Pesternikov1.401112113WSep 7 · 16:25I. Romaniak1.5711811113Y. Kravets2.25811581LSep 7 · 14:55I. Romaniak2.634380S. Rak1.441111113LSep 7 · 13:25I. Romaniak1.8051170R. Lazebnyi1.911113113WSep 7 · 11:55I. Romaniak2.10117811113D. Shcherbak1.6741111632WSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk2.25117941S. Rak1.5751111113LSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113LSep 8 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.2511140982D. Pesternikov1.578121111113WSep 8 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.3611119113O. Hura3.00571161LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181WSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113
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