TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094017
Played Sep 8Finished
Ivan Romaniak
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7112111210119118
Denys Pesternikov
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Romaniak above · Denys Pesternikov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 92 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 66.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Romaniak 31–40 Denys Pesternikov Ivan Romaniak has won 31 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:04What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-40 in 71
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 9 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Romaniak 1663 vs Pesternikov 1960
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 297 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Romaniak 40% vs Pesternikov 100%
Pesternikov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Romaniak 40% vs Pesternikov 90%
Pesternikov
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Romaniak +1 · Pesternikov +5
Pesternikov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesternikov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRomaniak 2.75 / Pesternikov 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Pesternikov)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13094017
Romaniak2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 126 of 307
Down 0–1, comes back27% 49 of 182
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 112
Pesternikov1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 232 of 341
Up 2–0, closes it96% 130 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it86% 186 of 217
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRomaniak3wins
AwayPesternikov7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRomaniak66.7%2 of 3
AwayPesternikov85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Romaniak3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S2Romaniak2Pesternikov8n = 10Pesternikov took 8 of 10
S3Romaniak3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Romaniak1Pesternikov2n = 3Pesternikov took 2 of 3
S5Romaniak2Pesternikov1n = 3Romaniak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricRomaniakPesternikovR − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match28.637.0−8.4per matchSweeps16−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRomaniakPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 514 vs 594 / 110745.1%53.7%232 / 514 vs 594 / 1107Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovRomaniak 2.75/Pesternikov 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.9%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 23:45I. Romaniak—12790D. Pesternikov—1411113
WSep 1 · 05:25I. Romaniak—1211123D. Pesternikov—108100
LAug 31 · 18:25I. Romaniak—5580D. Pesternikov—1111113
LAug 27 · 21:30I. Romaniak—11119392D. Pesternikov—961111113
LAug 25 · 08:55I. Romaniak—8430D. Pesternikov—1111113
LAug 24 · 15:25I. Romaniak—4920D. Pesternikov—1111113
WAug 21 · 15:35I. Romaniak—531112113D. Pesternikov—111151082
WAug 20 · 22:30I. Romaniak—115117113D. Pesternikov—91191132
LAug 18 · 08:05I. Romaniak—102120D. Pesternikov—1211143
LAug 17 · 16:35I. Romaniak—10560D. Pesternikov—1211113
I. Romaniak10
WSep 8 · 07:25I. Romaniak2.751111123S. Rak1.4046100LSep 8 · 05:55I. Romaniak1.364990O. Hura3.001111113LSep 8 · 04:25I. Romaniak1.83811121382N. Kovalchuk1.831171411113LSep 7 · 17:55I. Romaniak2.7571050D. Pesternikov1.401112113WSep 7 · 16:25I. Romaniak1.5711811113Y. Kravets2.25811581LSep 7 · 14:55I. Romaniak2.634380S. Rak1.441111113LSep 7 · 13:25I. Romaniak1.8051170R. Lazebnyi1.911113113WSep 7 · 11:55I. Romaniak2.10117811113D. Shcherbak1.6741111632WSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113LSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 8 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.171111113O. Hura4.508440WSep 8 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.2511140982D. Pesternikov1.578121111113WSep 8 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.5011811113S. Rak2.50811461WSep 7 · 17:55I. Romaniak2.7571050D. Pesternikov1.401112113WSep 7 · 16:55D. Pesternikov1.501311113S. Rak2.5011550WSep 7 · 15:55D. Pesternikov1.2811118113D. Shcherbak3.50941161LSep 7 · 14:25D. Pesternikov1.531061171Y. Kravets2.3812117113WSep 7 · 12:25D. Pesternikov1.301116114113R. Lazebnyi3.4051881182WSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113
Upcoming Matches
I. Romaniak
Nothing scheduled
D. Pesternikov
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