TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079272
Played Sep 5Finished
Orest Hura
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118911116118––
Yurii Shmyndra
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Shmyndra to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOrest Hura above · Yurii Shmyndra below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Yurii Shmyndra at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Orest Hura 8–7 Yurii Shmyndra Yurii Shmyndra has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Shmyndra
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hura 1629 vs Shmyndra 1636
Shmyndra
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hura 40% vs Shmyndra 80%
Shmyndra
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hura 50% vs Shmyndra 80%
Shmyndra
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hura +1 · Shmyndra +4
Shmyndra
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Shmyndra)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shmyndra form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHura 1.83 / Shmyndra 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Shmyndra)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13079272
Hura1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Shmyndra1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHura5wins
AwayShmyndra5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHura66.7%4 of 6
AwayShmyndra75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hura6Shmyndra4n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S2Hura4Shmyndra6n = 10Shmyndra took 6 of 10
S3Hura6Shmyndra4n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S4Hura4Shmyndra4n = 8split evenly
S5Hura2Shmyndra2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHuraShmyndraH − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.939.90.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHuraShmyndraBasisWin rate · lifetime423 / 793 vs 86 / 18753.3%46%423 / 793 vs 86 / 187Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShmyndraHura 1.83/Shmyndra 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Shmyndra · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura—11911113Y. Shmyndra—811681
WAug 30 · 05:35O. Hura—118116113Y. Shmyndra—91191162
WAug 29 · 16:35O. Hura—811411113Y. Shmyndra—11811872
LAug 23 · 08:05O. Hura—9118111Y. Shmyndra—11711133
WAug 22 · 01:00O. Hura—1111113Y. Shmyndra—9580
LAug 16 · 06:35O. Hura—49111162Y. Shmyndra—111135113
LAug 15 · 19:05O. Hura—116871Y. Shmyndra—71111113
LAug 8 · 18:35O. Hura—107121162Y. Shmyndra—1211109113
LAug 8 · 01:00O. Hura—128681Y. Shmyndra—101111113
WJul 12 · 08:05O. Hura—1212163Y. Shmyndra—1010140
O. Hura10
WSep 5 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi1.6710880O. Hura2.101211113LSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113WSep 5 · 16:05O. Hura1.57117149113V. Vlasenko2.25911121152WSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112LSep 5 · 03:00V. Vlasenko2.0011815123O. Hura1.7371113101LSep 5 · 01:30O. Hura1.91611171S. Kalenyk1.8011911113WSep 4 · 23:30S. Berezynskyi1.67118861O. Hura2.1071111113LSep 4 · 21:30M. Smyrnov2.0011911113O. Hura1.73611691WSep 4 · 20:30O. Mitla1.9112106101O. Hura1.80101211123WSep 3 · 02:15O. Hura1.6711119113V. Vlasenko2.10991181
Y. Shmyndra10
LSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192LSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841WSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182WSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551WSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191
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