TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073884
Played Sep 4Finished
Mykyta Smyrnov
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116911116119––
Orest Hura
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:49 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOrest Hura to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Orest Hura below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Orest Hura at 54.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 34–29 Orest Hura Orest Hura has won 29 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:49What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hura
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-29 in 63
Smyrnov
Correct
gap of 5 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyrnov 1641 vs Hura 1586
Smyrnov
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyrnov 100% vs Hura 60%
Smyrnov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyrnov 90% vs Hura 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyrnov +5 · Hura +2
Smyrnov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hura)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyrnov 2.00 / Hura 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hura)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13073884
Smyrnov2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 116 of 285
Down 0–1, comes back21% 32 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Hura1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 87 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it98% 44 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it73% 60 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyrnov4wins
AwayHura6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHura leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyrnov50%2 of 4
AwayHura66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyrnov4Hura6n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S2Smyrnov5Hura5n = 10split evenly
S3Smyrnov4Hura6n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S4Smyrnov3Hura5n = 8Hura took 5 of 8
S5Smyrnov2Hura2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmyrnovHuraS − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.842.6−3.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmyrnovHuraBasisWin rate · lifetime389 / 787 vs 418 / 78549.4%53.3%389 / 787 vs 418 / 785Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HuraSmyrnov 2.00/Hura 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Hura · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 20:30M. Smyrnov—1110117113O. Hura—61261172
LAug 25 · 21:45M. Smyrnov—81112282O. Hura—1181011113
WAug 23 · 11:05M. Smyrnov—21113123O. Hura—11811101
LAug 22 · 24:00M. Smyrnov—116101482O. Hura—6111212113
WAug 19 · 24:45M. Smyrnov—9131110113O. Hura—111191292
LAug 13 · 24:15M. Smyrnov—8115101O. Hura—11911123
WAug 12 · 24:15M. Smyrnov—11113113O. Hura—781181
LAug 8 · 13:05M. Smyrnov—77120O. Hura—1111143
LAug 6 · 21:45M. Smyrnov—119791O. Hura—71111113
LJul 29 · 23:15M. Smyrnov—12930O. Hura—1411113
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182WSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123LSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112
O. Hura10
WSep 5 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi1.6710880O. Hura2.101211113LSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113WSep 5 · 16:05O. Hura1.57117149113V. Vlasenko2.25911121152WSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681WSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112LSep 5 · 03:00V. Vlasenko2.0011815123O. Hura1.7371113101LSep 5 · 01:30O. Hura1.91611171S. Kalenyk1.8011911113WSep 4 · 23:30S. Berezynskyi1.67118861O. Hura2.1071111113WSep 4 · 20:30O. Mitla1.9112106101O. Hura1.80101211123WSep 3 · 02:15O. Hura1.6711119113V. Vlasenko2.10991181
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