TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078887
Played Sep 5Finished
Serhii Berezynskyi
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116118114––
Yurii Shmyndra
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:32 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeSerhii Berezynskyi to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Berezynskyi above · Yurii Shmyndra below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 71 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Serhii Berezynskyi at 61.6%
71 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Berezynskyi 5–0 Yurii Shmyndra Yurii Shmyndra has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:32What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Berezynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Berezynskyi
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Berezynskyi 1626 vs Shmyndra 1636
Shmyndra
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Berezynskyi 60% vs Shmyndra 80%
Shmyndra
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Berezynskyi 40% vs Shmyndra 70%
Shmyndra
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Berezynskyi +1 · Shmyndra +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Berezynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shmyndra form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerezynskyi 1.53 / Shmyndra 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Berezynskyi)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13078887
Berezynskyi1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 57 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it73% 44 of 60
Shmyndra2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 54 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBerezynskyi5wins
AwayShmyndra0wins
1 of 5 to a deciderBerezynskyi leads 5–0, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBerezynskyi100%3 of 3
AwayShmyndran = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berezynskyi3Shmyndra2n = 5Berezynskyi took 3 of 5
S2Berezynskyi5Shmyndra0n = 5Berezynskyi took 5 of 5
S3Berezynskyi4Shmyndra1n = 5Berezynskyi took 4 of 5
S4Berezynskyi2Shmyndra1n = 3Berezynskyi took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricBerezynskyiShmyndraB − SBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match41.831.2+10.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerezynskyiShmyndraBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 358 vs 86 / 18750.6%46%181 / 358 vs 86 / 187Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BerezynskyiBerezynskyi 1.53/Shmyndra 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Berezynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Berezynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi—91111113Y. Shmyndra—116841
WAug 8 · 12:05S. Berezynskyi—911149123Y. Shmyndra—1131211102
WAug 7 · 22:00S. Berezynskyi—1111113Y. Shmyndra—7780
WJul 11 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi—11119113Y. Shmyndra—771191
WJun 13 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi—1115113Y. Shmyndra—41370
S. Berezynskyi10
LSep 5 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi1.6710880O. Hura2.101211113WSep 5 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi1.44111142S. Kalenyk2.639840LSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123WSep 5 · 12:05S. Berezynskyi1.441111811113V. Vlasenko2.6313811592WSep 5 · 02:30S. Berezynskyi1.442111011113S. Kalenyk2.6311312532LSep 5 · 24:30M. Smyrnov2.501111123S. Berezynskyi1.5087100LSep 4 · 23:30S. Berezynskyi1.67118861O. Hura2.1071111113LSep 4 · 22:30O. Mitla2.38113117113S. Berezynskyi1.5361141152WSep 4 · 21:00S. Berezynskyi1.5011811113V. Vlasenko2.50711671LSep 1 · 01:52N. Kovalchuk1.4412611153S. Berezynskyi2.6310117131
Y. Shmyndra10
LSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192WSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182LSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681WSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551WSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191
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