TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073729
Played Sep 5Finished
Mykyta Smyrnov
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181171210––––
Serhii Berezynskyi
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Berezynskyi to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Serhii Berezynskyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 59 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Serhii Berezynskyi at 63.7%
59 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 8–10 Serhii Berezynskyi Mykyta Smyrnov has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:18What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Berezynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Berezynskyi
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyrnov 1640 vs Berezynskyi 1636
Smyrnov
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyrnov 80% vs Berezynskyi 20%
Smyrnov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyrnov 90% vs Berezynskyi 50%
Smyrnov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyrnov -1 · Berezynskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Berezynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Berezynskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyrnov 2.50 / Berezynskyi 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Berezynskyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13073729
Smyrnov2.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 116 of 285
Down 0–1, comes back21% 32 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Berezynskyi1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 55 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it74% 43 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyrnov3wins
AwayBerezynskyi7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBerezynskyi leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyrnov75%3 of 4
AwayBerezynskyi100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyrnov4Berezynskyi6n = 10Berezynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Smyrnov4Berezynskyi6n = 10Berezynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Smyrnov2Berezynskyi8n = 10Berezynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Smyrnov1Berezynskyi2n = 3Berezynskyi took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmyrnovBerezynskyiS − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match27.534.8−7.3per matchSweeps25−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmyrnovBerezynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime390 / 789 vs 177 / 35249.4%50.3%390 / 789 vs 177 / 352Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BerezynskyiSmyrnov 2.50/Berezynskyi 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Berezynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 24:30M. Smyrnov—1111123S. Berezynskyi—87100
LAug 19 · 02:15M. Smyrnov—1160S. Berezynskyi—1111113
LAug 8 · 15:05M. Smyrnov—12640S. Berezynskyi—1411113
WJul 29 · 22:15M. Smyrnov—111271113S. Berezynskyi—510111142
LJul 15 · 02:15M. Smyrnov—3650S. Berezynskyi—1111113
LJul 13 · 20:45M. Smyrnov—711621S. Berezynskyi—11811113
LJun 24 · 23:15M. Smyrnov—118101162S. Berezynskyi—711124113
WJun 13 · 15:05M. Smyrnov—1113113S. Berezynskyi—71160
LJun 9 · 24:45M. Smyrnov—13870S. Berezynskyi—1511113
LMay 16 · 18:05M. Smyrnov—9740S. Berezynskyi—1111113
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182WSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123LSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112
S. Berezynskyi10
LSep 5 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi1.6710880O. Hura2.101211113WSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841WSep 5 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi1.44111142S. Kalenyk2.639840LSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123WSep 5 · 12:05S. Berezynskyi1.441111811113V. Vlasenko2.6313811592WSep 5 · 02:30S. Berezynskyi1.442111011113S. Kalenyk2.6311312532LSep 4 · 23:30S. Berezynskyi1.67118861O. Hura2.1071111113LSep 4 · 22:30O. Mitla2.38113117113S. Berezynskyi1.5361141152WSep 4 · 21:00S. Berezynskyi1.5011811113V. Vlasenko2.50711671LSep 1 · 01:52N. Kovalchuk1.4412611153S. Berezynskyi2.6310117131
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.