TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13056860
Played Sep 1Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12106111171513––
Serhii Berezynskyi
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Serhii Berezynskyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 15-13
Point 85 set 4, 15-13
85 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 7–5 Serhii Berezynskyi Serhii Berezynskyi has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Berezynskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.44 / Berezynskyi 2.63
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Kovalchuk)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13056860
Kovalchuk1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 169 of 286
Up 2–0, closes it95% 69 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it72% 114 of 158
Berezynskyi2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 17 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back10% 2 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk7wins
AwayBerezynskyi3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk100%4 of 4
AwayBerezynskyi50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk4Berezynskyi6n = 10Berezynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk10Berezynskyi0n = 10Kovalchuk took 10 of 10
S3Kovalchuk6Berezynskyi4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk4Berezynskyi4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukBerezynskyiK − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.434.9+4.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukBerezynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 696 vs 185 / 35751.2%51.8%356 / 696 vs 185 / 357Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.44/Berezynskyi 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 24:45N. Kovalchuk—8111110113S. Berezynskyi—11631262
WAug 26 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk—11118113S. Berezynskyi—781121
LAug 19 · 23:15N. Kovalchuk—511119122S. Berezynskyi—114911143
LJul 1 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk—611861S. Berezynskyi—11911113
WJun 24 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk—31112113S. Berezynskyi—1141061
WJun 8 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk—71211113S. Berezynskyi—1110991
WApr 24 · 20:00N. Kovalchuk—1211123S. Berezynskyi—108100
LJan 18 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk—811951S. Berezynskyi—11611103
WJan 17 · 16:05N. Kovalchuk—11119113S. Berezynskyi—881171
WDec 19 · 23:00N. Kovalchuk—1113113S. Berezynskyi—81130
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682WSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113
S. Berezynskyi10
LSep 5 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi1.6710880O. Hura2.101211113WSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841WSep 5 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi1.44111142S. Kalenyk2.639840LSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123WSep 5 · 12:05S. Berezynskyi1.441111811113V. Vlasenko2.6313811592WSep 5 · 02:30S. Berezynskyi1.442111011113S. Kalenyk2.6311312532LSep 5 · 24:30M. Smyrnov2.501111123S. Berezynskyi1.5087100LSep 4 · 23:30S. Berezynskyi1.67118861O. Hura2.1071111113LSep 4 · 22:30O. Mitla2.38113117113S. Berezynskyi1.5361141152WSep 4 · 21:00S. Berezynskyi1.5011811113V. Vlasenko2.50711671
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