TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084414
Played Sep 6Finished
Yurii Shmyndra
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811115611112711
Valerii Vlasenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeYurii Shmyndra to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYurii Shmyndra above · Valerii Vlasenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 83 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Yurii Shmyndra at 56.5%
83 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Shmyndra 7–7 Valerii Vlasenko Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:20What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Shmyndra
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shmyndra 1609 vs Vlasenko 1551
Shmyndra
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shmyndra 40% vs Vlasenko 80%
Vlasenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shmyndra 60% vs Vlasenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shmyndra +1 · Vlasenko +3
Vlasenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Shmyndra) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vlasenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShmyndra 1.73 / Vlasenko 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Shmyndra)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13084414
Shmyndra1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite47% won 30 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it59% 16 of 27
Vlasenko2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 126 of 303
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShmyndra6wins
AwayVlasenko4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderShmyndra leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShmyndra50%2 of 4
AwayVlasenko33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shmyndra4Vlasenko6n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S2Shmyndra6Vlasenko4n = 10Shmyndra took 6 of 10
S3Shmyndra4Vlasenko6n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S4Shmyndra6Vlasenko4n = 10Shmyndra took 6 of 10
S5Shmyndra4Vlasenko2n = 6Shmyndra took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricShmyndraVlasenkoS − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.845.1−0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShmyndraVlasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 190 vs 414 / 93945.8%44.1%87 / 190 vs 414 / 939Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShmyndraShmyndra 1.73/Vlasenko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Shmyndra · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vlasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra—127118113V. Vlasenko—101171192
WAug 30 · 09:35Y. Shmyndra—1191110143V. Vlasenko—911912122
WAug 21 · 23:00Y. Shmyndra—711617113V. Vlasenko—119111572
LAug 16 · 11:05Y. Shmyndra—4111771V. Vlasenko—11819113
LAug 15 · 12:35Y. Shmyndra—14481182V. Vlasenko—1211115113
LAug 9 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra—11161162V. Vlasenko—116119113
WAug 7 · 23:00Y. Shmyndra—101111113V. Vlasenko—128691
WJul 11 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra—81311113V. Vlasenko—1111881
LJun 14 · 09:35Y. Shmyndra—1110871V. Vlasenko—31211113
WJun 13 · 14:35Y. Shmyndra—911911113V. Vlasenko—11511762
Y. Shmyndra10
LSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113WSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192LSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841WSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182LSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681WSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551WSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191
V. Vlasenko10
LSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192WSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 16:05O. Hura1.57117149113V. Vlasenko2.25911121152WSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123LSep 5 · 12:05S. Berezynskyi1.441111811113V. Vlasenko2.6313811592WSep 5 · 03:00V. Vlasenko2.0011815123O. Hura1.7371113101
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