TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084399
Played Sep 6Finished
Valerii Vlasenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511411211––––
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeValerii Vlasenko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 44 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Valerii Vlasenko at 54.1%
44 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 33–30 Serhii Kalenyk Serhii Kalenyk has won 30 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:20What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vlasenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-30 in 63
Vlasenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1576 vs Kalenyk 1497
Vlasenko
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 80% vs Kalenyk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 70% vs Kalenyk 50%
Vlasenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko +4 · Kalenyk -1
Vlasenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vlasenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 1.73 / Kalenyk 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vlasenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084399
Vlasenko1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite45% won 41 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it64% 27 of 42
Kalenyk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 71 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back23% 23 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko9wins
AwayKalenyk1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVlasenko leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayKalenyk0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko6Kalenyk4n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S2Vlasenko7Kalenyk3n = 10Vlasenko took 7 of 10
S3Vlasenko6Kalenyk4n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S4Vlasenko6Kalenyk3n = 9Vlasenko took 6 of 9
S5Vlasenko4Kalenyk1n = 5Vlasenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoKalenykV − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.240.4+4.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime415 / 940 vs 338 / 71944.2%47%415 / 940 vs 338 / 719Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VlasenkoVlasenko 1.73/Kalenyk 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Vlasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kalenyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 14:05V. Vlasenko—11411123S. Kalenyk—5115101
WSep 4 · 22:00V. Vlasenko—511612113S. Kalenyk—117111052
WSep 3 · 24:15V. Vlasenko—11118113S. Kalenyk—861171
LAug 16 · 08:05V. Vlasenko—1911117102S. Kalenyk—1761311123
WAug 15 · 18:05V. Vlasenko—14119103S. Kalenyk—1281181
WAug 14 · 01:15V. Vlasenko—211118113S. Kalenyk—11791172
WAug 12 · 21:45V. Vlasenko—581111163S. Kalenyk—111128142
WAug 11 · 21:45V. Vlasenko—1112113S. Kalenyk—41090
WAug 7 · 21:30V. Vlasenko—11111110113S. Kalenyk—13381282
WAug 5 · 22:45V. Vlasenko—13713113S. Kalenyk—11111181
V. Vlasenko10
WSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192WSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 16:05O. Hura1.57117149113V. Vlasenko2.25911121152WSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123LSep 5 · 12:05S. Berezynskyi1.441111811113V. Vlasenko2.6313811592WSep 5 · 03:00V. Vlasenko2.0011815123O. Hura1.7371113101
S. Kalenyk10
LSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791WSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113WSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113WSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080WSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113LSep 5 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi1.44111142S. Kalenyk2.639840LSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123LSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551LSep 5 · 02:30S. Berezynskyi1.442111011113S. Kalenyk2.6311312532
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