TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073076
Played Sep 4Finished
Vitalii S Marushchak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118112811116––
Anatolii Lievshin
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii S Marushchak above · Anatolii Lievshin below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 68 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 55.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii S Marushchak 12–4 Anatolii Lievshin Anatolii Lievshin has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:09What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Marushchak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-4 in 16
Marushchak
Correct
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marushchak 1716 vs Lievshin 1707
Marushchak
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marushchak 40% vs Lievshin 100%
Lievshin
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marushchak 50% vs Lievshin 80%
Lievshin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marushchak +2 · Lievshin +5
Lievshin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Marushchak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lievshin form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarushchak 1.73 / Lievshin 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Marushchak)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13073076
Marushchak1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 71 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it80% 55 of 69
Lievshin2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog54% won 53 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back23% 11 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarushchak8wins
AwayLievshin2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarushchak leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarushchak100%6 of 6
AwayLievshin50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marushchak6Lievshin4n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S2Marushchak6Lievshin4n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S3Marushchak5Lievshin5n = 10split evenly
S4Marushchak4Lievshin2n = 6Marushchak took 4 of 6
S5Marushchak3Lievshin0n = 3Marushchak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarushchakLievshinM − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.035.0+4.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarushchakLievshinBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 632 vs 167 / 29747.6%56.2%301 / 632 vs 167 / 297Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakMarushchak 1.73/Lievshin 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak—11118113A. Lievshin—821161
WSep 2 · 06:20V. Marushchak—1211711123A. Lievshin—1013118102
WSep 1 · 12:30V. Marushchak—1811113A. Lievshin—16890
WAug 31 · 14:10V. Marushchak—1111113A. Lievshin—7450
WAug 28 · 11:10V. Marushchak—11611113A. Lievshin—811861
WAug 25 · 12:30V. Marushchak—311129123A. Lievshin—1161011102
WAug 24 · 11:40V. Marushchak—9111411113A. Lievshin—115121372
LAug 21 · 15:40V. Marushchak—6880A. Lievshin—1111113
LAug 18 · 13:00V. Marushchak—10840A. Lievshin—1211113
WAug 17 · 11:40V. Marushchak—11114113A. Lievshin—651141
V. Marushchak10
LSep 4 · 17:10V. Marushchak1.91101191192A. Yurkov1.80122111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.25811441V. Marushchak1.5711911113WSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133WSep 4 · 11:40V. Marushchak1.571111113V. Savoliuk2.259750LSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191LSep 2 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.80111311982A. Hrabskyi1.91915811113LSep 2 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.918460A. Yurkov1.801111113WSep 2 · 08:20V. Marushchak2.001111811113O. Seliuchenko1.7313911682WSep 2 · 06:20V. Marushchak1.671211711123A. Lievshin2.101013118102WSep 1 · 18:00A. Hrabskyi1.911071241V. Marushchak1.80121110113
A. Lievshin10
LSep 4 · 17:40V. Savoliuk2.2511811113A. Lievshin1.57811961WSep 4 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.7351111113A. Yurkov2.00118861WSep 4 · 12:10V. Voronenko1.912870A. Lievshin1.801111113WSep 4 · 11:10A. Hrabskyi3.755511101A. Lievshin1.2511119123WSep 2 · 12:50A. Hrabskyi3.403560A. Lievshin1.301111113WSep 2 · 11:20A. Lievshin1.8011611113A. Yurkov1.91711961WSep 2 · 09:20O. Seliuchenko1.801111411A. Lievshin1.9113811113WSep 2 · 07:20Y. Shmyndra1.73811561A. Lievshin2.0011511113LSep 2 · 06:20V. Marushchak1.671211711123A. Lievshin2.101013118102WSep 1 · 19:00A. Yurkov2.00711241A. Lievshin1.7311911113
Upcoming Matches
V. Marushchak
A. Lievshin
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.