TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091661
Played Sep 8Finished
Jakub Folwarski
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115117511118––
Tibor Spanik
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:47 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Folwarski above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 69 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Folwarski at 60.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Folwarski 0–1 Tibor Spanik Jakub Folwarski has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:47What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Folwarski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Folwarski 2151 vs Spanik 1872
Folwarski
Correct
both rated, 280 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Folwarski 80% vs Spanik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Folwarski 70% vs Spanik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Folwarski +1 · Spanik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Folwarski) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFolwarski 1.44 / Spanik 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Folwarski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13091661
Folwarski1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite76% won 178 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it99% 73 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it88% 104 of 118
Spanik2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 66 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back30% 18 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeFolwarski0wins
AwaySpanik1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSpanik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricFolwarskiSpanikF − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match42.046.0−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFolwarskiSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 402 vs 228 / 40874.4%55.9%299 / 402 vs 228 / 408Avg sets wonper match2.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiFolwarski 1.44/Spanik 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Folwarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 7 · 13:45J. Folwarski—104111162T. Spanik—121175113
J. Folwarski10
WSep 8 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.448111110123A. Wiecek2.63118912102LSep 8 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.61111197102P. David2.20651111123WSep 8 · 04:10J. Kosowski2.3881151182J. Folwarski1.53115119113WSep 8 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.25611911113M. Olejnik3.7511511892WSep 7 · 13:45S. Kolasa3.251638101J. Folwarski1.33141111123WSep 7 · 12:55P. David2.201297101J. Folwarski1.61101111123LSep 7 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.5711811982J. Kosowski2.25911711113WSep 7 · 09:40K. Kolodziej4.5011781192J. Folwarski1.17511117113WAug 13 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.201111113K. Kolodziej4.338790LAug 13 · 12:30J. Folwarski1.3313711862M. Benes3.251111211113
T. Spanik10
WSep 8 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.739131191T. Spanik2.0011154113LSep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.9181111782M. Olejnik1.80117911113WSep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.751111610113P. David1.4047111262WSep 8 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.00181174102T. Spanik1.731691111123WAug 31 · 13:45T. Spanik1.61101111113M. Jadczyk2.20123431LAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik1.831110111562K. Petas1.831312613113WAug 31 · 11:15T. Spanik1.731111113K. Wloczko2.007540LAug 31 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.671110711113T. Spanik2.1081211942LAug 31 · 09:20T. Spanik1.5711771182K. Strowski2.25511114113WAug 31 · 08:30T. Spanik1.73811911113K. Petas2.0011811762
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