TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091663
Played Sep 8Finished
Jakub Folwarski
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161159117111012
Petr David
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:47 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Folwarski above · Petr David below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 93 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Jakub Folwarski at 59.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Folwarski 18–10 Petr David Petr David has won 10 of their 28 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 16h before this match
Folwarski beat David 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:47What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Folwarski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-10 in 28
Folwarski
Wrong
gap of 8 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Folwarski 2167 vs David 1948
Folwarski
Wrong
both rated, 219 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Folwarski 80% vs David 40%
Folwarski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Folwarski 80% vs David 50%
Folwarski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Folwarski +4 · David -1
Folwarski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Folwarski) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Folwarski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFolwarski 1.61 / David 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Folwarski)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13091663
Folwarski1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite76% won 178 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it99% 73 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it88% 104 of 118
David2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 16 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFolwarski7wins
AwayDavid3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFolwarski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFolwarski33.3%1 of 3
AwayDavid14.3%1 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Folwarski3David7n = 10David took 7 of 10
S2Folwarski6David4n = 10Folwarski took 6 of 10
S3Folwarski6David4n = 10Folwarski took 6 of 10
S4Folwarski7David3n = 10Folwarski took 7 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFolwarskiDavidF − DBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.137.6+0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFolwarskiDavidBasisWin rate · lifetime298 / 400 vs 651 / 99274.5%65.6%298 / 400 vs 651 / 992Avg sets wonper match2.52.4per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiFolwarski 1.61/David 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 12:55J. Folwarski—101111123P. David—1297101
WJun 4 · 08:25J. Folwarski—771111123P. David—111155102
WJun 3 · 12:50J. Folwarski—11113113P. David—891161
WJun 3 · 05:50J. Folwarski—51111113P. David—118781
WMay 20 · 10:25J. Folwarski—61114113P. David—1171291
LMay 20 · 05:05J. Folwarski—371181P. David—11118113
WMar 19 · 06:05J. Folwarski—711311113P. David—11511742
WMar 18 · 16:35J. Folwarski—91111113P. David—116451
LMar 18 · 05:40J. Folwarski—1121211P. David—71114113
LJan 30 · 13:00J. Folwarski—1166101P. David—71111123
J. Folwarski10
WSep 8 · 04:10J. Kosowski2.3881151182J. Folwarski1.53115119113WSep 8 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.25611911113M. Olejnik3.7511511892WSep 7 · 13:45S. Kolasa3.251638101J. Folwarski1.33141111123WSep 7 · 12:55P. David2.201297101J. Folwarski1.61101111123LSep 7 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.5711811982J. Kosowski2.25911711113WSep 7 · 09:40K. Kolodziej4.5011781192J. Folwarski1.17511117113WAug 13 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.201111113K. Kolodziej4.338790LAug 13 · 12:30J. Folwarski1.3313711862M. Benes3.251111211113WAug 13 · 11:15J. Folwarski1.6171111113G. Felkel2.20118791WAug 13 · 10:00A. Abbasi2.637870J. Folwarski1.441111113
P. David10
LSep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.751111610113P. David1.4047111262WSep 8 · 03:00J. Kosowski2.3811611642P. David1.53711711113WSep 7 · 14:35P. David1.611111143J. Kosowski2.2097120LSep 7 · 12:55P. David2.201297101J. Folwarski1.61101111123LSep 7 · 11:40P. David1.3061381162K. Kolodziej3.401111115113WSep 7 · 10:00P. David1.73141711113S. Kolasa2.001219361LSep 7 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.831212113P. David1.83101090WSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113WSep 7 · 04:55P. David1.081111113G. Poliniewicz7.003690LSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113
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