TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087216
Played Sep 7Finished
Petr David
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191171412––––
Jakub Kosowski
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr David above · Jakub Kosowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 64 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Petr David at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 43–39 Jakub Kosowski Jakub Kosowski has won 39 of their 82 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Kosowski beat David 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:58What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
David
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-39 in 82
David
Correct
gap of 4 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
David 1933 vs Kosowski 2003
Kosowski
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 40% vs Kosowski 100%
Kosowski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 50% vs Kosowski 80%
Kosowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
David -2 · Kosowski +5
Kosowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans David) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosowski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 1.61 / Kosowski 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (David)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13087216
David1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 238 of 356
Up 2–0, closes it97% 124 of 128
Up 1–0, closes it82% 181 of 221
Kosowski2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 42 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDavid4wins
AwayKosowski6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKosowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDavidn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKosowski62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1David2Kosowski8n = 10Kosowski took 8 of 10
S2David7Kosowski3n = 10David took 7 of 10
S3David5Kosowski5n = 10split evenly
S4David3Kosowski6n = 9Kosowski took 6 of 9
S5David2Kosowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDavidKosowskiD − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match42.942.6+0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidKosowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime650 / 990 vs 747 / 126265.7%59.2%650 / 990 vs 747 / 1262Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DavidDavid 1.61/Kosowski 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 06:30P. David—101090J. Kosowski—1212113
WAug 5 · 11:15P. David—71111113J. Kosowski—119761
LAug 5 · 04:10P. David—8101151J. Kosowski—11126113
WAug 2 · 13:45P. David—811118113J. Kosowski—11571182
WAug 2 · 08:30P. David—11118113J. Kosowski—671181
LAug 1 · 14:35P. David—1551111102J. Kosowski—1311713123
LAug 1 · 06:30P. David—8117151J. Kosowski—11811173
WJun 10 · 12:00P. David—6111112113J. Kosowski—11571462
LJun 10 · 05:50P. David—121191172J. Kosowski—147119113
LJun 3 · 11:10P. David—81112111J. Kosowski—11814133
P. David10
WSep 8 · 08:05A. Wiecek2.508121161P. David1.5011146113WSep 8 · 07:20M. Olejnik2.008101181P. David1.7311125113WSep 8 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.61111197102P. David2.20651111123LSep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.751111610113P. David1.4047111262WSep 8 · 03:00J. Kosowski2.3811611642P. David1.53711711113LSep 7 · 12:55P. David2.201297101J. Folwarski1.61101111123LSep 7 · 11:40P. David1.3061381162K. Kolodziej3.401111115113WSep 7 · 10:00P. David1.73141711113S. Kolasa2.001219361LSep 7 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.831212113P. David1.83101090WSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113
J. Kosowski10
LSep 8 · 13:45J. Kosowski2.2044111282M. Olejnik1.611111410113WSep 8 · 12:30J. Kosowski1.361211113K. Wloczko3.0010980LSep 8 · 11:15J. Kosowski1.3311711142K. Kolodziej3.25911911113LSep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.201111113J. Kosowski1.619850WSep 8 · 09:20J. Kosowski1.6712611133A. Wiecek2.1010118111WSep 8 · 08:30J. Kosowski2.101211143M. Olejnik1.67105120LSep 8 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.739131191T. Spanik2.0011154113LSep 8 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.677121191A. Wiecek2.1011146113LSep 8 · 03:00J. Kosowski2.3811611642P. David1.53711711113WSep 7 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.831212113P. David1.83101090
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