TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087161
Played Sep 7Finished
Petr David
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12109117111012––
Jakub Folwarski
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:40 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr David above · Jakub Folwarski below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 82 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jakub Folwarski at 61.3%
82 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 10–17 Jakub Folwarski Petr David has won 10 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:40What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Folwarski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-17 in 27
Folwarski
Correct
gap of 7 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
David 1939 vs Folwarski 2144
Folwarski
Correct
both rated, 205 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 60% vs Folwarski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 60% vs Folwarski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
David -1 · Folwarski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Folwarski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- David form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 2.20 / Folwarski 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Folwarski)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13087161
David2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 17 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back27% 4 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Folwarski1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite76% won 174 of 228
Up 2–0, closes it99% 73 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it89% 104 of 117
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDavid3wins
AwayFolwarski7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFolwarski leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDavid16.7%1 of 6
AwayFolwarski50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1David6Folwarski4n = 10David took 6 of 10
S2David5Folwarski5n = 10split evenly
S3David4Folwarski6n = 10Folwarski took 6 of 10
S4David4Folwarski6n = 10Folwarski took 6 of 10
S5David0Folwarski3n = 3Folwarski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDavidFolwarskiD − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.437.9+0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidFolwarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime650 / 989 vs 294 / 39665.7%74.2%650 / 989 vs 294 / 396Avg sets wonper match2.42.5per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiDavid 2.20/Folwarski 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Folwarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 4 · 08:25P. David—111155102J. Folwarski—771111123
LJun 3 · 12:50P. David—891161J. Folwarski—11113113
LJun 3 · 05:50P. David—118781J. Folwarski—51111113
LMay 20 · 10:25P. David—1171291J. Folwarski—61114113
WMay 20 · 05:05P. David—11118113J. Folwarski—371181
LMar 19 · 06:05P. David—11511742J. Folwarski—711311113
LMar 18 · 16:35P. David—116451J. Folwarski—91111113
WMar 18 · 05:40P. David—71114113J. Folwarski—1121211
WJan 30 · 13:00P. David—71111123J. Folwarski—1166101
LDec 23 · 05:20P. David—71191182J. Folwarski—116113113
P. David10
LSep 7 · 11:40P. David1.3061381162K. Kolodziej3.401111115113WSep 7 · 10:00P. David1.73141711113S. Kolasa2.001219361LSep 7 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.831212113P. David1.83101090WSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113WSep 7 · 04:55P. David1.081111113G. Poliniewicz7.003690LSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 3 · 13:45P. David1.4413711143D. Michna2.6311113121LSep 3 · 12:30P. David1.571081161A. Wiecek2.2512117113WSep 3 · 11:15P. David1.3011116113K. Kolodziej3.40871151WSep 3 · 10:00A. Dosz2.001110761P. David1.7391211113
J. Folwarski10
WSep 7 · 13:45S. Kolasa3.251638101J. Folwarski1.33141111123LSep 7 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.5711811982J. Kosowski2.25911711113WSep 7 · 09:40K. Kolodziej4.5011781192J. Folwarski1.17511117113WAug 13 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.201111113K. Kolodziej4.338790LAug 13 · 12:30J. Folwarski1.3313711862M. Benes3.251111211113WAug 13 · 11:15J. Folwarski1.6171111113G. Felkel2.20118791WAug 13 · 10:00A. Abbasi2.637870J. Folwarski1.441111113WAug 13 · 09:20J. Folwarski1.301111113J. Braun3.405540WAug 13 · 08:40J. Folwarski1.141211113A. Daniel5.0010730WAug 13 · 07:15J. Folwarski1.441014119123M. Jadczyk2.631212711102
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