TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088103
Played Sep 7Finished
Szymon Kolasa
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
16143118111012––
Jakub Folwarski
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:42 and never touched — 74.9% is still 74.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
74.9%
74.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Kolasa above · Jakub Folwarski below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 85 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jakub Folwarski at 74.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Kolasa 1–4 Jakub Folwarski Szymon Kolasa has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:42What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Folwarski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Folwarski
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolasa 1883 vs Folwarski 2151
Folwarski
Correct
both rated, 268 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolasa 60% vs Folwarski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolasa 50% vs Folwarski 80%
Folwarski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolasa +1 · Folwarski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Folwarski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Folwarski form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolasa 3.25 / Folwarski 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Folwarski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13088103
Kolasa3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 65 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back35% 30 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back15% 6 of 40
Folwarski1.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite76% won 174 of 228
Up 2–0, closes it99% 73 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it89% 104 of 117
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKolasa1wins
AwayFolwarski4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderFolwarski leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolasa33.3%1 of 3
AwayFolwarskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolasa3Folwarski2n = 5Kolasa took 3 of 5
S2Kolasa1Folwarski4n = 5Folwarski took 4 of 5
S3Kolasa1Folwarski4n = 5Folwarski took 4 of 5
S4Kolasa0Folwarski4n = 4Folwarski took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKolasaFolwarskiK − FBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match35.842.0−6.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolasaFolwarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime292 / 533 vs 295 / 39754.8%74.3%292 / 533 vs 295 / 397Avg sets wonper match2.12.5per matchAvg pointsper match39.140.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiKolasa 3.25/Folwarski 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Folwarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 12 · 14:55S. Kolasa—1114981J. Folwarski—31611113
LOct 11 · 11:35S. Kolasa—751781J. Folwarski—111115113
WOct 11 · 04:20S. Kolasa—111146113J. Folwarski—88111192
LAug 8 · 11:10S. Kolasa—115981J. Folwarski—71111113
LAug 8 · 06:40S. Kolasa—410100J. Folwarski—1112113
S. Kolasa10
WSep 7 · 12:30S. Kolasa1.734111110113K. Kolodziej2.0011251282LSep 7 · 10:00P. David1.73141711113S. Kolasa2.001219361LSep 7 · 09:20S. Kolasa2.1011760J. Kosowski1.671311113WSep 7 · 08:30S. Kolasa1.4011115113G. Poliniewicz2.75381141WSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591LSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113LSep 7 · 04:10S. Kolasa2.386270J. Kosowski1.531111113LSep 7 · 03:00S. Kolasa1.830J. Zandecki1.830WSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751WSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761
J. Folwarski10
WSep 7 · 12:55P. David2.201297101J. Folwarski1.61101111123LSep 7 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.5711811982J. Kosowski2.25911711113WSep 7 · 09:40K. Kolodziej4.5011781192J. Folwarski1.17511117113WAug 13 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.201111113K. Kolodziej4.338790LAug 13 · 12:30J. Folwarski1.3313711862M. Benes3.251111211113WAug 13 · 11:15J. Folwarski1.6171111113G. Felkel2.20118791WAug 13 · 10:00A. Abbasi2.637870J. Folwarski1.441111113WAug 13 · 09:20J. Folwarski1.301111113J. Braun3.405540WAug 13 · 08:40J. Folwarski1.141211113A. Daniel5.0010730WAug 13 · 07:15J. Folwarski1.441014119123M. Jadczyk2.631212711102
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