TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12413727
Played Aug 13Finished
Jakub Folwarski
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311711112811611
Michal Benes
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:12 and never touched — 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Folwarski above · Michal Benes below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jakub Folwarski at 70.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Folwarski 0–1 Michal Benes Jakub Folwarski has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Folwarski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Folwarski 2181 vs Benes 1816
Folwarski
Wrong
both rated, 365 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Folwarski 100% vs Benes 40%
Folwarski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Folwarski 90% vs Benes 60%
Folwarski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Folwarski +5 · Benes -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Folwarski) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Folwarski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFolwarski 1.33 / Benes 3.25
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Folwarski)+7.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12413727
Folwarski1.33
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite76% won 168 of 220
Up 2–0, closes it99% 69 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it89% 100 of 112
Benes3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 11 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back22% 4 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeFolwarski0wins
AwayBenes1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderBenes leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricFolwarskiBenesF − BBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match45.046.0−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFolwarskiBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime302 / 404 vs 103 / 21074.8%49.1%302 / 404 vs 103 / 210Avg sets wonper match2.51.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.135.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiFolwarski 1.33/Benes 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77.9%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 13 · 12:30J. Folwarski—13711862M. Benes—1111211113
J. Folwarski10
WSep 7 · 09:40K. Kolodziej4.5011781192J. Folwarski1.17511117113WAug 13 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.201111113K. Kolodziej4.338790WAug 13 · 11:15J. Folwarski1.6171111113G. Felkel2.20118791WAug 13 · 10:00A. Abbasi2.637870J. Folwarski1.441111113WAug 13 · 09:20J. Folwarski1.301111113J. Braun3.405540WAug 13 · 08:40J. Folwarski1.141211113A. Daniel5.0010730WAug 13 · 07:15J. Folwarski1.441014119123M. Jadczyk2.631212711102LAug 13 · 06:10J. Folwarski1.449181131A. Abbasi2.6311205113WAug 13 · 04:05J. Folwarski1.221211113M. Domin4.0010560WAug 13 · 03:00J. Folwarski1.61101112113G. Felkel2.201251081
M. Benes10
WSep 3 · 20:05J. Witkowski5.00411581M. Benes1.1411911113WSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113WSep 3 · 17:20J. Braun2.10611471M. Benes1.6711511113LSep 3 · 16:30A. Daniel2.5081111113M. Benes1.50119931WSep 3 · 15:00P. Klos2.0091181152M. Benes1.73111118113LSep 3 · 14:15P. Klos1.7811116113M. Benes1.91451171WSep 3 · 13:25A. Daniel1.94610111172M. Benes1.74111278113WSep 3 · 11:20G. Poliniewicz2.151261161M. Benes1.60101113113WSep 3 · 10:30K. Wisniewski2.709111111102M. Benes1.40117613123LSep 3 · 09:00J. Braun1.8115115113M. Benes1.861361161
Upcoming Matches
J. Folwarski
Sep 7 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.57J. Kosowski2.25—Sep 7 · 12:55J. Folwarski1.61P. David2.20—Sep 7 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.33S. Kolasa3.25—Sep 8 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.30M. Olejnik3.40—Sep 8 · 04:10J. Folwarski1.57J. Kosowski2.25—Sep 8 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.61P. David2.20—Sep 8 · 06:30J. Folwarski—A. Wiecek——Sep 8 · 07:45J. Folwarski—T. Spanik——
M. Benes
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.