Josef Braun vs Michal Benes 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070567

Played Sep 3Finished

Josef Braun

Home

2.10

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 3

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

611115411711––

Michal Benes

Away

1.67

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:41 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%

Graded at full time

Michal Benes to win

57.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

no pick shipped

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingJosef Braun above · Michal Benes below

Set 1 · 6-11

Set 2 · 11-5

Set 3 · 4-11

Set 4 · 7-11

Point 66 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Michal Benes at 57.0%

66 points played in total.

H2H Josef Braun 7–9 Michal Benes Josef Braun has won 7 of their 16 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 09:41

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Benes

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

7-9 in 16

Benes

Correct

gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Braun 1809 vs Benes 1841

Benes

Correct

both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Braun 80% vs Benes 80%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Braun 80% vs Benes 70%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Braun +3 · Benes -1

Braun

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsBraun 2.10 / Benes 1.67

Signal prob.44% / 56%

Edge (Benes)+0.4pp

TT Elite Series · #13070567

Braun2.10

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Won last 3

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog40% won 82 of 203

Down 0–1, comes back22% 24 of 107

Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 61

Benes1.67

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite59% won 35 of 59

Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16

Up 1–0, closes it76% 31 of 41

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeBraun4wins

AwayBenes6wins

1 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeBraun66.7%4 of 6

AwayBenes100%4 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Braun6Benes4n = 10Braun took 6 of 10

S2Braun4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10

S3Braun4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10

S4Braun3Benes3n = 6split evenly

Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricBraunBenesBraun − BenesBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.634.3−0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricBraunBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime498 / 952 vs 107 / 21652.3%49.5%498 / 952 vs 107 / 216Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.935.4per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Benes

Braun 2.10/Benes 1.67

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

56.2%

Benes · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Benes won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 3 · 09:00J. Braun—15115113M. Benes—1361161

WAug 27 · 19:40J. Braun—11711113M. Benes—311671

LAug 27 · 14:35J. Braun—1110861M. Benes—71211113

LAug 13 · 16:05J. Braun—103111162M. Benes—121188113

WAug 13 · 10:50J. Braun—1111113M. Benes—5760

LAug 6 · 18:05J. Braun—1269111M. Benes—101111133

LJun 23 · 11:40J. Braun—6780M. Benes—1111113

LJun 15 · 13:00J. Braun—711861M. Benes—11611113

LMar 20 · 15:30J. Braun—7850M. Benes—1111113

WMar 20 · 06:15J. Braun—1112113M. Benes—91020

J. Braun10

LSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751 LSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113 WSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113 LSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562 WSep 6 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.75911961J. Braun1.4011911113 WSep 6 · 08:05J. Braun1.36111111113G. Poliniewicz3.00139741 LSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161 LSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192 WSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161 WSep 6 · 03:45J. Braun2.0014911113S. Kolasa1.731211581

M. Benes10

WSep 3 · 20:05J. Witkowski5.00411581M. Benes1.1411911113 WSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113 LSep 3 · 16:30A. Daniel2.5081111113M. Benes1.50119931 WSep 3 · 15:00P. Klos2.0091181152M. Benes1.73111118113 LSep 3 · 14:15P. Klos1.7811116113M. Benes1.91451171 WSep 3 · 13:25A. Daniel1.94610111172M. Benes1.74111278113 WSep 3 · 11:20G. Poliniewicz2.151261161M. Benes1.60101113113 WSep 3 · 10:30K. Wisniewski2.709111111102M. Benes1.40117613123 LSep 3 · 09:00J. Braun1.8115115113M. Benes1.861361161 LAug 27 · 19:40J. Braun1.8311711113M. Benes1.83311671

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