TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082492
Played Sep 6Finished
Szymon Sporek
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811119711115116
Josef Braun
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched — 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeJosef Braun to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSzymon Sporek above · Josef Braun below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 90 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Josef Braun at 68.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Sporek 5–14 Josef Braun Szymon Sporek has won 5 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Braun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-14 in 19
Braun
Wrong
gap of 9 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sporek 1730 vs Braun 1858
Braun
Wrong
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sporek 40% vs Braun 60%
Braun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sporek 40% vs Braun 60%
Braun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sporek +1 · Braun +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Braun) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Braun form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSporek 2.75 / Braun 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Braun)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13082492
Sporek2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 71 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Braun1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 143 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it90% 78 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it75% 109 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSporek4wins
AwayBraun6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBraun leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSporek80%4 of 5
AwayBraun100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sporek5Braun5n = 10split evenly
S2Sporek4Braun6n = 10Braun took 6 of 10
S3Sporek4Braun6n = 10Braun took 6 of 10
S4Sporek3Braun3n = 6split evenly
S5Sporek1Braun2n = 3Braun took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSporekBraunS − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.637.4−1.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSporekBraunBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 819 vs 503 / 96149.7%52.3%407 / 819 vs 503 / 961Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BraunSporek 2.75/Braun 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Braun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sporek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek—1711102113J. Braun—157121192
WJun 12 · 14:00S. Sporek—11411113J. Braun—611681
LJun 12 · 08:45S. Sporek—81111942J. Braun—114211113
LMay 19 · 09:55S. Sporek—101760J. Braun—1219113
LApr 1 · 10:00S. Sporek—71170J. Braun—1113113
LFeb 4 · 11:20S. Sporek—6670J. Braun—1111113
WFeb 4 · 06:45S. Sporek—1111133J. Braun—43110
LJan 25 · 21:40S. Sporek—91181172J. Braun—11811893
WJan 25 · 16:35S. Sporek—11411123J. Braun—2119101
LJan 2 · 15:50S. Sporek—125841J. Braun—101111113
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111WSep 5 · 14:35M. Domin1.73125581S. Sporek2.00101111113
J. Braun10
LSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751LSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.75911961J. Braun1.4011911113WSep 6 · 08:05J. Braun1.36111111113G. Poliniewicz3.00139741LSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161LSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192WSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161WSep 6 · 03:45J. Braun2.0014911113S. Kolasa1.731211581WSep 3 · 19:40J. Braun1.731311113A. Daniel2.0011750
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