TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082965
Played Sep 6Finished
Szymon Sporek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411116117611711
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Nowalinski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Sporek above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 85 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Maciej Nowalinski at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Sporek 14–17 Maciej Nowalinski Szymon Sporek has won 14 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:19What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Nowalinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-17 in 31
Nowalinski
Correct
gap of 3 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sporek 1727 vs Nowalinski 1735
Nowalinski
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sporek 60% vs Nowalinski 20%
Sporek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sporek 40% vs Nowalinski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sporek -1 · Nowalinski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nowalinski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSporek 1.91 / Nowalinski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Nowalinski)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13082965
Sporek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 71 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Nowalinski1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 191 of 315
Up 2–0, closes it100% 64 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it84% 137 of 164
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSporek6wins
AwayNowalinski4wins
8 of 10 to a deciderSporek leads 6–4, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSporek83.3%5 of 6
AwayNowalinski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sporek6Nowalinski4n = 10Sporek took 6 of 10
S2Sporek5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Sporek5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S4Sporek4Nowalinski6n = 10Nowalinski took 6 of 10
S5Sporek5Nowalinski3n = 8Sporek took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSporekNowalinskiS − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match46.644.5+2.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSporekNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime406 / 817 vs 837 / 173849.7%48.2%406 / 817 vs 837 / 1738Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowalinskiSporek 1.91/Nowalinski 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Nowalinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowalinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 21 · 09:40S. Sporek—511591M. Nowalinski—11811113
WJul 20 · 09:40S. Sporek—111149113M. Nowalinski—78111172
WJul 20 · 07:20S. Sporek—116118113M. Nowalinski—91151182
WJul 15 · 10:05S. Sporek—1110119113M. Nowalinski—61271162
LMay 28 · 07:15S. Sporek—11911882M. Nowalinski—811811113
WMay 20 · 14:25S. Sporek—117117113M. Nowalinski—81161162
WMay 3 · 21:10S. Sporek—118911113M. Nowalinski—51111872
LApr 26 · 16:45S. Sporek—911201172M. Nowalinski—116226113
WApr 25 · 21:10S. Sporek—81211113M. Nowalinski—1110761
LApr 2 · 12:00S. Sporek—611111272M. Nowalinski—1161310113
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111WSep 5 · 14:35M. Domin1.73125581S. Sporek2.00101111113
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841LSep 5 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.0041111992G. Adamiak1.73118611113
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