TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077191
Played Sep 5Finished
Maciej Nowalinski
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411118116911911
Grzegorz Adamiak
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:58 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Adamiak to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Nowalinski above · Grzegorz Adamiak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-6
Point 49 set 3, 9-6 — our read held Grzegorz Adamiak at 56.2%
49 points drawn · the score is 42 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Maciej Nowalinski 25–28 Grzegorz Adamiak Maciej Nowalinski has won 25 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Adamiak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-28 in 53
Adamiak
Correct
gap of 3 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowalinski 1766 vs Adamiak 1806
Adamiak
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowalinski 60% vs Adamiak 80%
Adamiak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowalinski 40% vs Adamiak 60%
Adamiak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowalinski +1 · Adamiak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamiak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamiak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowalinski 2.00 / Adamiak 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Adamiak)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13077191
Nowalinski2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 130 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back18% 36 of 201
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 93
Adamiak1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 77 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it84% 58 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowalinski4wins
AwayAdamiak6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderAdamiak leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowalinski66.7%2 of 3
AwayAdamiak71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowalinski3Adamiak7n = 10Adamiak took 7 of 10
S2Nowalinski7Adamiak3n = 10Nowalinski took 7 of 10
S3Nowalinski7Adamiak3n = 10Nowalinski took 7 of 10
S4Nowalinski4Adamiak4n = 8split evenly
S5Nowalinski1Adamiak5n = 6Adamiak took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowalinskiAdamiakN − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.543.0−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowalinskiAdamiakBasisWin rate · lifetime837 / 1738 vs 334 / 76648.2%43.6%837 / 1738 vs 334 / 766Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.635.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamiakNowalinski 2.00/Adamiak 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Adamiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adamiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 22 · 09:00M. Nowalinski—4990G. Adamiak—1111113
WJul 17 · 15:00M. Nowalinski—1711113G. Adamiak—15960
WJul 17 · 08:30M. Nowalinski—81311113G. Adamiak—1111871
LJul 9 · 06:55M. Nowalinski—911115112G. Adamiak—114911133
LJul 8 · 05:15M. Nowalinski—11511972G. Adamiak—711711113
LJul 2 · 10:55M. Nowalinski—101171142G. Adamiak—129119113
LJun 6 · 11:10M. Nowalinski—711111082G. Adamiak—117612113
WJun 5 · 11:30M. Nowalinski—117711113G. Adamiak—81111892
WJun 5 · 04:15M. Nowalinski—101111143G. Adamiak—1299121
LMay 17 · 10:00M. Nowalinski—51111832G. Adamiak—117711113
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
G. Adamiak10
WSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662WSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752LSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621LSep 6 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.75911961J. Braun1.4011911113WSep 6 · 08:05D. Wasilewski4.25117110G. Adamiak1.181311133WSep 6 · 07:15M. Zagajewski5.80691131G. Adamiak1.0911115113WSep 6 · 05:15P. Staniszewski5.405970G. Adamiak1.111111113WSep 6 · 04:25T. Pisarczyk6.906450G. Adamiak1.061111113WSep 6 · 03:00I. Dabrowski—8111451G. Adamiak—11616113
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