TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082299
Played Sep 6Finished
Grzegorz Adamiak
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116311611116116
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:30 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Adamiak to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Adamiak above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 2-2
Point 69 set 5, 2-2 — our read held Grzegorz Adamiak at 54.1%
69 points drawn · the score is 13 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Grzegorz Adamiak 28–25 Maciej Nowalinski Maciej Nowalinski has won 25 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:30What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Nowalinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-25 in 53
Adamiak
Correct
gap of 3 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamiak 1774 vs Nowalinski 1747
Adamiak
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamiak 40% vs Nowalinski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamiak 70% vs Nowalinski 30%
Adamiak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamiak +1 · Nowalinski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamiak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamiak 1.83 / Nowalinski 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamiak)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13082299
Adamiak1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Nowalinski1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamiak6wins
AwayNowalinski4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderAdamiak leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamiak71.4%5 of 7
AwayNowalinski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamiak7Nowalinski3n = 10Adamiak took 7 of 10
S2Adamiak3Nowalinski7n = 10Nowalinski took 7 of 10
S3Adamiak3Nowalinski7n = 10Nowalinski took 7 of 10
S4Adamiak4Nowalinski4n = 8split evenly
S5Adamiak5Nowalinski1n = 6Adamiak took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamiakNowalinskiA − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.041.5+1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamiakNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime340 / 775 vs 838 / 174243.9%48.1%340 / 775 vs 838 / 1742Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamiakAdamiak 1.83/Nowalinski 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Adamiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 22 · 09:00G. Adamiak—1111113M. Nowalinski—4990
LJul 17 · 15:00G. Adamiak—15960M. Nowalinski—1711113
LJul 17 · 08:30G. Adamiak—1111871M. Nowalinski—81311113
WJul 9 · 06:55G. Adamiak—114911133M. Nowalinski—911115112
WJul 8 · 05:15G. Adamiak—711711113M. Nowalinski—11511972
WJul 2 · 10:55G. Adamiak—129119113M. Nowalinski—101171142
WJun 6 · 11:10G. Adamiak—117612113M. Nowalinski—711111082
LJun 5 · 11:30G. Adamiak—81111892M. Nowalinski—117711113
LJun 5 · 04:15G. Adamiak—1299121M. Nowalinski—101111143
WMay 17 · 10:00G. Adamiak—117711113M. Nowalinski—51111832
G. Adamiak10
WSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752LSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621LSep 6 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.75911961J. Braun1.4011911113WSep 6 · 08:05D. Wasilewski4.25117110G. Adamiak1.181311133WSep 6 · 07:15M. Zagajewski5.80691131G. Adamiak1.0911115113WSep 6 · 05:15P. Staniszewski5.405970G. Adamiak1.111111113WSep 6 · 04:25T. Pisarczyk6.906450G. Adamiak1.061111113WSep 6 · 03:00I. Dabrowski—8111451G. Adamiak—11616113WSep 5 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.0041111992G. Adamiak1.73118611113
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841LSep 5 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.0041111992G. Adamiak1.73118611113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.