TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082207
Played Sep 6Finished
Grzegorz Adamiak
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181177111517115
Szymon Sporek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Adamiak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Adamiak above · Szymon Sporek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 15-17
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 103 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Grzegorz Adamiak at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Adamiak 10–5 Szymon Sporek Szymon Sporek has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:08What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sporek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Adamiak
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamiak 1761 vs Sporek 1799
Sporek
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamiak 40% vs Sporek 60%
Sporek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamiak 70% vs Sporek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamiak -3 · Sporek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamiak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamiak form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamiak 1.83 / Sporek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamiak)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13082207
Adamiak1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Sporek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamiak6wins
AwaySporek4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAdamiak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamiak100%5 of 5
AwaySporek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamiak5Sporek5n = 10split evenly
S2Adamiak9Sporek1n = 10Adamiak took 9 of 10
S3Adamiak3Sporek7n = 10Sporek took 7 of 10
S4Adamiak5Sporek3n = 8Adamiak took 5 of 8
S5Adamiak1Sporek2n = 3Sporek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamiakSporekA − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.238.8+2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamiakSporekBasisWin rate · lifetime339 / 774 vs 409 / 82143.8%49.8%339 / 774 vs 409 / 821Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamiakAdamiak 1.83/Sporek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Adamiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 13:20G. Adamiak—12157113S. Sporek—10131151
WSep 5 · 06:30G. Adamiak—11118133S. Sporek—3711111
WApr 19 · 10:25G. Adamiak—11117113S. Sporek—391171
LApr 3 · 14:00G. Adamiak—716751S. Sporek—111411113
LApr 3 · 08:45G. Adamiak—611111192S. Sporek—117313113
WJan 25 · 12:10G. Adamiak—11119133S. Sporek—9911111
LDec 7 · 11:25G. Adamiak—1211111182S. Sporek—148713113
LOct 26 · 15:05G. Adamiak—81080S. Sporek—1112113
WOct 12 · 12:00G. Adamiak—1111113S. Sporek—6980
WJul 18 · 04:35G. Adamiak—611611113S. Sporek—11511992
G. Adamiak10
WSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621LSep 6 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.75911961J. Braun1.4011911113WSep 6 · 08:05D. Wasilewski4.25117110G. Adamiak1.181311133WSep 6 · 07:15M. Zagajewski5.80691131G. Adamiak1.0911115113WSep 6 · 05:15P. Staniszewski5.405970G. Adamiak1.111111113WSep 6 · 04:25T. Pisarczyk6.906450G. Adamiak1.061111113WSep 6 · 03:00I. Dabrowski—8111451G. Adamiak—11616113WSep 5 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.0041111992G. Adamiak1.73118611113
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111WSep 5 · 14:35M. Domin1.73125581S. Sporek2.00101111113
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