TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082265
Played Sep 6Finished
Szymon Sporek
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191166111311––
Grzegorz Poliniewicz
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:19 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeSzymon Sporek to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Sporek above · Grzegorz Poliniewicz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 78 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Szymon Sporek at 58.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Sporek 10–9 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Grzegorz Poliniewicz has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:19What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Sporek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sporek 1720 vs Poliniewicz 1704
Sporek
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sporek 20% vs Poliniewicz 40%
Poliniewicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sporek 40% vs Poliniewicz 70%
Poliniewicz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sporek +1 · Poliniewicz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Sporek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sporek form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSporek 1.57 / Poliniewicz 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Sporek)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13082265
Sporek1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 123 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it97% 66 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it79% 102 of 129
Poliniewicz2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 140 of 370
Down 0–1, comes back22% 45 of 208
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSporek5wins
AwayPoliniewicz5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSporek57.1%4 of 7
AwayPoliniewicz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sporek7Poliniewicz3n = 10Sporek took 7 of 10
S2Sporek5Poliniewicz5n = 10split evenly
S3Sporek4Poliniewicz6n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S4Sporek4Poliniewicz4n = 8split evenly
S5Sporek1Poliniewicz2n = 3Poliniewicz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSporekPoliniewiczS − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.938.6+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSporekPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime405 / 814 vs 1248 / 210349.8%59.3%405 / 814 vs 1248 / 2103Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SporekSporek 1.57/Poliniewicz 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.7%
Sporek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sporek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 18 · 11:45S. Sporek—11811812G. Poliniewicz—711811113
LJun 12 · 09:30S. Sporek—119871G. Poliniewicz—81111113
WJun 11 · 10:20S. Sporek—11114113G. Poliniewicz—791151
WJun 11 · 07:10S. Sporek—911156113G. Poliniewicz—115131162
LApr 3 · 12:45S. Sporek—187100G. Poliniewicz—2011123
LMar 14 · 16:10S. Sporek—971111G. Poliniewicz—1111223
WFeb 4 · 09:45S. Sporek—11118113G. Poliniewicz—681171
LDec 14 · 11:00S. Sporek—116812102G. Poliniewicz—8111110123
WJul 27 · 01:10S. Sporek—12114113G. Poliniewicz—1071181
WJul 26 · 22:45S. Sporek—1114123G. Poliniewicz—812100
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 5 · 14:35M. Domin1.73125581S. Sporek2.00101111113
G. Poliniewicz10
LSep 7 · 13:50M. Sklensky1.4411129113G. Poliniewicz2.507101151LSep 7 · 13:00K. Strowski1.6011115113G. Poliniewicz2.15971171WSep 7 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz2.1011138113K. Glazowski1.657111181WSep 7 · 10:30G. Poliniewicz3.1011911123K. Wloczko1.307116101LSep 7 · 09:45K. Wisniewski2.331111313123G. Poliniewicz1.51891115102LSep 7 · 08:30S. Kolasa1.4011115113G. Poliniewicz2.75381141LSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282LSep 7 · 04:55P. David1.081111113G. Poliniewicz7.003690LSep 7 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.281211133G. Poliniewicz3.50107110LSep 6 · 08:05J. Braun1.36111111113G. Poliniewicz3.00139741
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