TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082215
Played Sep 6Finished
Josef Braun
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113119117114––
Grzegorz Poliniewicz
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:08 and never touched — 71.2% is still 71.2%
Graded at full timeJosef Braun to win
71.2%
71.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Braun above · Grzegorz Poliniewicz below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 77 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Josef Braun at 71.2%
77 points played in total.
H2H Josef Braun 11–3 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Grzegorz Poliniewicz has won 3 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:08What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Braun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-3 in 14
Braun
Correct
gap of 8 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Braun 1816 vs Poliniewicz 1722
Braun
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Braun 60% vs Poliniewicz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Braun 60% vs Poliniewicz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Braun -2 · Poliniewicz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Braun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBraun 1.36 / Poliniewicz 3.00
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Braun)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13082215
Braun1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 143 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it90% 78 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it75% 109 of 146
Poliniewicz3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 140 of 371
Down 0–1, comes back22% 45 of 209
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBraun7wins
AwayPoliniewicz3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBraun leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBraun100%4 of 4
AwayPoliniewicz50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Braun4Poliniewicz6n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S2Braun8Poliniewicz2n = 10Braun took 8 of 10
S3Braun6Poliniewicz4n = 10Braun took 6 of 10
S4Braun3Poliniewicz2n = 5Braun took 3 of 5
S5Braun2Poliniewicz1n = 3Braun took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBraunPoliniewiczB − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.733.1+5.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBraunPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime501 / 959 vs 1250 / 210652.2%59.4%501 / 959 vs 1250 / 2106Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BraunBraun 1.36/Poliniewicz 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.2%
Braun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Braun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 10:05J. Braun—131178163G. Poliniewicz—1181111142
LAug 27 · 09:20J. Braun—9680G. Poliniewicz—1111113
WAug 19 · 14:35J. Braun—1111113G. Poliniewicz—1970
WJul 30 · 09:20J. Braun—1111113G. Poliniewicz—5840
LJul 27 · 14:35J. Braun—10890G. Poliniewicz—1211113
WJul 27 · 06:30J. Braun—7111116113G. Poliniewicz—11571832
LJul 10 · 13:00J. Braun—71181162G. Poliniewicz—119119113
WJun 26 · 14:35J. Braun—91311113G. Poliniewicz—1111241
WJun 12 · 12:20J. Braun—71111113G. Poliniewicz—118581
WFeb 4 · 06:00J. Braun—1111113G. Poliniewicz—7940
J. Braun10
LSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751LSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113LSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.75911961J. Braun1.4011911113LSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161LSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192WSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161WSep 6 · 03:45J. Braun2.0014911113S. Kolasa1.731211581WSep 3 · 19:40J. Braun1.731311113A. Daniel2.0011750
G. Poliniewicz10
LSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282LSep 7 · 04:55P. David1.081111113G. Poliniewicz7.003690LSep 7 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.281211133G. Poliniewicz3.50107110WSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 05:15M. Domin1.5711115192G. Poliniewicz2.25871111113LSep 6 · 04:30S. Kolasa1.331111113G. Poliniewicz3.255680LSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111WSep 4 · 13:50J. Zochniak3.25114481G. Poliniewicz1.2761111113LSep 4 · 13:00A. Daniel1.3511711113G. Poliniewicz2.85611591LSep 4 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz2.357660S. Dosz1.531111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Braun
Nothing scheduled
G. Poliniewicz1 of 7 neutral
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