TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087278
Played Sep 7Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
1.14
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171195111012118
Grzegorz Poliniewicz
Away
5.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:18 and never touched — 84.2% is still 84.2%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
84.2%
84.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Grzegorz Poliniewicz below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 95 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 84.2%
95 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 6–2 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Grzegorz Poliniewicz has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:18What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1875 vs Poliniewicz 1693
Jadczyk
Correct
both rated, 183 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 60% vs Poliniewicz 40%
Jadczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 60% vs Poliniewicz 30%
Jadczyk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk +2 · Poliniewicz -3
Poliniewicz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 84% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (20%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.14 / Poliniewicz 5.00
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Jadczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13087278
Jadczyk1.14
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 438 of 686
Up 2–0, closes it98% 220 of 224
Up 1–0, closes it84% 344 of 412
Poliniewicz5.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 142 of 376
Down 0–1, comes back22% 46 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeJadczyk6wins
AwayPoliniewicz2wins
3 of 8 to a deciderJadczyk leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk85.7%6 of 7
AwayPoliniewiczn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk7Poliniewicz1n = 8Jadczyk took 7 of 8
S2Jadczyk5Poliniewicz3n = 8Jadczyk took 5 of 8
S3Jadczyk5Poliniewicz3n = 8Jadczyk took 5 of 8
S4Jadczyk2Poliniewicz3n = 5Poliniewicz took 3 of 5
S5Jadczyk2Poliniewicz1n = 3Jadczyk took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricJadczykPoliniewiczJ − PBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match38.533.9+4.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime981 / 1675 vs 1250 / 211058.6%59.2%981 / 1675 vs 1250 / 2110Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykJadczyk 1.14/Poliniewicz 5.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.8%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk—1111510113G. Poliniewicz—79111282
WJul 27 · 12:55M. Jadczyk—118119113G. Poliniewicz—81151172
LJul 27 · 07:45M. Jadczyk—712641G. Poliniewicz—111011113
WJun 30 · 04:30M. Jadczyk—1111113G. Poliniewicz—7740
LMar 15 · 05:40M. Jadczyk—114411112G. Poliniewicz—811116133
WFeb 12 · 08:55M. Jadczyk—1111113G. Poliniewicz—7820
WFeb 4 · 07:10M. Jadczyk—1111123G. Poliniewicz—77100
WJan 27 · 13:20M. Jadczyk—11711113G. Poliniewicz—911651
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113LSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182LSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113WSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 07:45S. Dosz2.38891161M. Jadczyk1.5311116113LSep 4 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.9111511113M. Jadczyk1.80911581
G. Poliniewicz10
LSep 7 · 04:55P. David1.081111113G. Poliniewicz7.003690LSep 7 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.281211133G. Poliniewicz3.50107110LSep 6 · 08:05J. Braun1.36111111113G. Poliniewicz3.00139741WSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 05:15M. Domin1.5711115192G. Poliniewicz2.25871111113LSep 6 · 04:30S. Kolasa1.331111113G. Poliniewicz3.255680LSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111WSep 4 · 13:50J. Zochniak3.25114481G. Poliniewicz1.2761111113LSep 4 · 13:00A. Daniel1.3511711113G. Poliniewicz2.85611591LSep 4 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz2.357660S. Dosz1.531111113
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