TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070568
Played Sep 4Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119511115118––
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 42–64 Marcin Jadczyk Adrian Wiecek has won 42 of their 106 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:39What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jadczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-64 in 106
Jadczyk
Wrong
gap of 22 in 106, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1891 vs Jadczyk 1878
Wiecek
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 40% vs Jadczyk 20%
Wiecek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 40% vs Jadczyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek -1 · Jadczyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jadczyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.91 / Jadczyk 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jadczyk)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13070568
Wiecek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 91 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Jadczyk1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 439 of 690
Up 2–0, closes it98% 222 of 227
Up 1–0, closes it83% 346 of 416
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek5wins
AwayJadczyk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek80%4 of 5
AwayJadczyk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Wiecek6Jadczyk4n = 10Wiecek took 6 of 10
S3Wiecek4Jadczyk6n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S4Wiecek4Jadczyk5n = 9Jadczyk took 5 of 9
S5Wiecek2Jadczyk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekJadczykW − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.340.9−0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime780 / 1416 vs 983 / 167855.1%58.6%780 / 1416 vs 983 / 1678Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykWiecek 1.91/Jadczyk 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek—811581M. Jadczyk—11511113
WSep 4 · 06:55A. Wiecek—11511113M. Jadczyk—911581
LAug 25 · 06:05A. Wiecek—9111081M. Jadczyk—11912113
WAug 24 · 03:45A. Wiecek—1110116113M. Jadczyk—81271182
LAug 17 · 12:55A. Wiecek—91040M. Jadczyk—1112113
WAug 17 · 03:45A. Wiecek—511156113M. Jadczyk—114131192
WAug 12 · 03:45A. Wiecek—11129113M. Jadczyk—9101111
LAug 11 · 04:30A. Wiecek—711101172M. Jadczyk—119127113
WAug 4 · 06:05A. Wiecek—11127113M. Jadczyk—8101191
LAug 3 · 12:55A. Wiecek—11712782M. Jadczyk—5111011113
A. Wiecek10
LSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113WSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172WSep 4 · 11:15A. Grela1.838680A. Wiecek1.831111113LSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113LSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113LSep 4 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.9111311992A. Grela1.80811811113WSep 4 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.40111011113S. Dosz2.75712591LSep 4 · 03:00A. Wiecek2.00951151A. Dosz1.7311118113LSep 3 · 14:10A. Wiecek1.339980K. Kolodziej3.251111113
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282WSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113LSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182LSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113WSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 07:45S. Dosz2.38891161M. Jadczyk1.5311116113
Upcoming Matches
A. Wiecek1 of 1 neutral
M. Jadczyk
Nothing scheduled
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