TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070566
Played Sep 4Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171012115119––
Slawomir Dosz
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:40 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Slawomir Dosz below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Adrian Wiecek at 65.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 11–4 Slawomir Dosz Slawomir Dosz has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:40What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Wiecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-4 in 15
Wiecek
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1884 vs Dosz 1966
Dosz
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 20% vs Dosz 80%
Dosz
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 30% vs Dosz 70%
Dosz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek -2 · Dosz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Wiecek) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dosz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.40 / Dosz 2.75
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Wiecek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13070566
Wiecek1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 210 of 338
Up 2–0, closes it96% 85 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it79% 152 of 193
Dosz2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 16 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back24% 4 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek6wins
AwayDosz4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWiecek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek75%3 of 4
AwayDosz50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek4Dosz6n = 10Dosz took 6 of 10
S2Wiecek5Dosz5n = 10split evenly
S3Wiecek5Dosz5n = 10split evenly
S4Wiecek5Dosz3n = 8Wiecek took 5 of 8
S5Wiecek3Dosz1n = 4Wiecek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekDoszW − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.937.4+4.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekDoszBasisWin rate · lifetime781 / 1419 vs 58 / 12755%45.7%781 / 1419 vs 58 / 127Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekWiecek 1.40/Dosz 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.7%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 04:10A. Wiecek—111011113S. Dosz—712591
LSep 3 · 10:50A. Wiecek—8790S. Dosz—1111113
LJun 3 · 11:10A. Wiecek—11891182S. Dosz—511118113
LJun 2 · 15:35A. Wiecek—1111791S. Dosz—13711113
LJun 2 · 07:40A. Wiecek—1511751S. Dosz—17911113
WMay 7 · 13:40A. Wiecek—128911113S. Dosz—101111862
WMay 7 · 04:00A. Wiecek—991111113S. Dosz—11115282
WMay 6 · 15:35A. Wiecek—101111123S. Dosz—1285101
WMay 6 · 04:40A. Wiecek—7111110113S. Dosz—11531262
WMay 5 · 14:05A. Wiecek—1111113S. Dosz—3680
A. Wiecek10
LSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113WSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172WSep 4 · 11:15A. Grela1.838680A. Wiecek1.831111113LSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113LSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.9111511113M. Jadczyk1.80911581LSep 4 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.9111311992A. Grela1.80811811113LSep 4 · 03:00A. Wiecek2.00951151A. Dosz1.7311118113LSep 3 · 14:10A. Wiecek1.339980K. Kolodziej3.251111113
S. Dosz10
LSep 4 · 14:35A. Daniel3.0011611113S. Dosz1.33411681WSep 4 · 13:25S. Dosz1.221211123K. Wisniewski4.00106100WSep 4 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz2.357660S. Dosz1.531111113LSep 4 · 10:55K. Wloczko1.951111113S. Dosz1.758960LSep 4 · 09:20J. Zochniak2.80111177113S. Dosz1.3786111192LSep 4 · 07:45S. Dosz2.38891161M. Jadczyk1.5311116113LSep 4 · 06:30S. Dosz2.204711101A. Grela1.6111116123WSep 4 · 05:15S. Dosz2.0081111113A. Dosz1.73118871WSep 4 · 03:25S. Dosz2.2511311113D. Michna1.57911491LSep 3 · 14:35A. Dosz1.5711911113S. Dosz2.25811691
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