TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070619
Played Sep 4Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191412511911117
Adam Dosz
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Dosz to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Adam Dosz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 100 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Adam Dosz at 59.1%
100 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 5–2 Adam Dosz Adam Dosz has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:38What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dosz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Wiecek
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1882 vs Dosz 1942
Dosz
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 40% vs Dosz 20%
Wiecek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 40% vs Dosz 60%
Dosz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek +1 · Dosz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dosz) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dosz form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.91 / Dosz 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Dosz)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13070619
Wiecek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 90 of 222
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Dosz1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 74 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeWiecek5wins
AwayDosz2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderWiecek leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek100%5 of 5
AwayDoszn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek5Dosz2n = 7Wiecek took 5 of 7
S2Wiecek5Dosz2n = 7Wiecek took 5 of 7
S3Wiecek1Dosz6n = 7Dosz took 6 of 7
S4Wiecek4Dosz1n = 5Wiecek took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricWiecekDoszW − DBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match38.937.4+1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekDoszBasisWin rate · lifetime783 / 1424 vs 173 / 29955%57.9%783 / 1424 vs 173 / 299Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DoszWiecek 1.91/Dosz 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Dosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WMar 23 · 13:25A. Wiecek—119611113A. Dosz—51111892
WFeb 20 · 11:25A. Wiecek—11115113A. Dosz—681191
WFeb 20 · 08:00A. Wiecek—1112113A. Dosz—81070
LFeb 19 · 15:05A. Wiecek—1011571A. Dosz—12711113
WFeb 19 · 08:15A. Wiecek—111114153A. Dosz—9616131
LOct 20 · 14:50A. Wiecek—10990A. Dosz—1211113
WSep 1 · 14:50A. Wiecek—11114143A. Dosz—8911121
A. Wiecek10
LSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113WSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 11:15A. Grela1.838680A. Wiecek1.831111113LSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113LSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.9111511113M. Jadczyk1.80911581LSep 4 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.9111311992A. Grela1.80811811113WSep 4 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.40111011113S. Dosz2.75712591LSep 4 · 03:00A. Wiecek2.00951151A. Dosz1.7311118113LSep 3 · 14:10A. Wiecek1.339980K. Kolodziej3.251111113
A. Dosz10
WSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 14:35K. Kolodziej2.751181011113A. Dosz1.4061112752LSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:00A. Grela2.6351161162A. Dosz1.44116119113LSep 4 · 08:05A. Grela2.00811115113A. Dosz1.7311981192LSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771LSep 4 · 05:15S. Dosz2.0081111113A. Dosz1.73118871WSep 4 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.83811871A. Dosz1.8311811113WSep 4 · 03:00A. Wiecek2.00951151A. Dosz1.7311118113WSep 3 · 14:35A. Dosz1.5711911113S. Dosz2.25811691
Upcoming Matches
A. Wiecek1 of 1 neutral
A. Dosz
Nothing scheduled
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