TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13071732
Played Sep 4Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811115511811––
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 70 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 42–63 Marcin Jadczyk Adrian Wiecek has won 42 of their 105 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:19What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-63 in 105
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 21 in 105, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1893 vs Jadczyk 1876
Wiecek
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 60% vs Jadczyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 50% vs Jadczyk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek +3 · Jadczyk -2
Wiecek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wiecek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 2.38 / Jadczyk 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Jadczyk)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13071732
Wiecek2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 90 of 222
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Jadczyk1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 444 of 695
Up 2–0, closes it98% 224 of 229
Up 1–0, closes it83% 349 of 420
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek5wins
AwayJadczyk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek80%4 of 5
AwayJadczyk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Wiecek5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Wiecek4Jadczyk6n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S4Wiecek4Jadczyk4n = 8split evenly
S5Wiecek2Jadczyk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekJadczykW − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.340.6−1.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime785 / 1426 vs 983 / 167955.1%58.6%785 / 1426 vs 983 / 1679Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykWiecek 2.38/Jadczyk 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 06:55A. Wiecek—11511113M. Jadczyk—911581
LAug 25 · 06:05A. Wiecek—9111081M. Jadczyk—11912113
WAug 24 · 03:45A. Wiecek—1110116113M. Jadczyk—81271182
LAug 17 · 12:55A. Wiecek—91040M. Jadczyk—1112113
WAug 17 · 03:45A. Wiecek—511156113M. Jadczyk—114131192
WAug 12 · 03:45A. Wiecek—11129113M. Jadczyk—9101111
LAug 11 · 04:30A. Wiecek—711101172M. Jadczyk—119127113
WAug 4 · 06:05A. Wiecek—11127113M. Jadczyk—8101191
LAug 3 · 12:55A. Wiecek—11712782M. Jadczyk—5111011113
LAug 3 · 07:45A. Wiecek—71140M. Jadczyk—1113113
A. Wiecek10
WSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172WSep 4 · 11:15A. Grela1.838680A. Wiecek1.831111113LSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113LSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.9111511113M. Jadczyk1.80911581LSep 4 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.9111311992A. Grela1.80811811113WSep 4 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.40111011113S. Dosz2.75712591LSep 4 · 03:00A. Wiecek2.00951151A. Dosz1.7311118113LSep 3 · 14:10A. Wiecek1.339980K. Kolodziej3.251111113
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282WSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113LSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182LSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113WSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 07:45S. Dosz2.38891161M. Jadczyk1.5311116113LSep 4 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.9111511113M. Jadczyk1.80911581WSep 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.831112115123D. Michna1.83914911102
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M. Jadczyk
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