TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070526
Played Sep 4Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11912141195111210
Dawid Michna
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 104 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 34–25 Dawid Michna Dawid Michna has won 25 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:19What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Michna
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-25 in 59
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 9 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1878 vs Michna 1958
Michna
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 20% vs Michna 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 40% vs Michna 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk -4 · Michna +1
Jadczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jadczyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.83 / Michna 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jadczyk)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13070526
Jadczyk1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Michna1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk6wins
AwayMichna4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJadczyk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk80%4 of 5
AwayMichna60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk5Michna5n = 10split evenly
S2Jadczyk4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Jadczyk6Michna4n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S4Jadczyk4Michna3n = 7Jadczyk took 4 of 7
S5Jadczyk3Michna1n = 4Jadczyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykMichnaJ − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.137.6+1.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime983 / 1678 vs 528 / 96858.6%54.6%983 / 1678 vs 528 / 968Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykJadczyk 1.83/Michna 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 10:50M. Jadczyk—1111113D. Michna—6880
WSep 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk—1112115123D. Michna—914911102
WSep 3 · 06:05M. Jadczyk—117811113D. Michna—81111792
WAug 26 · 10:25M. Jadczyk—411711113D. Michna—11311892
WAug 26 · 04:30M. Jadczyk—91111113D. Michna—116631
LAug 17 · 13:45M. Jadczyk—61380D. Michna—1115113
LAug 17 · 06:55M. Jadczyk—11881162D. Michna—711118113
LAug 15 · 13:45M. Jadczyk—881181D. Michna—11116113
WAug 14 · 14:10M. Jadczyk—1111123D. Michna—77100
LAug 14 · 03:45M. Jadczyk—981151D. Michna—11116113
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282WSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113LSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182LSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113WSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 07:45S. Dosz2.38891161M. Jadczyk1.5311116113
D. Michna10
LSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:55A. Grela1.6112611642D. Michna2.201011911113WSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480LSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771WSep 4 · 04:55A. Grela1.738770D. Michna2.001111113LSep 4 · 03:25S. Dosz2.2511311113D. Michna1.57911491LSep 3 · 13:45P. David1.4413711143D. Michna2.6311113121
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