TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070573
Played Sep 4Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111171113811––
Dawid Michna
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:39 and never touched — 59.2% is still 59.2%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
59.2%
59.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 81 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Adrian Wiecek at 59.2%
81 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 41–20 Dawid Michna Dawid Michna has won 20 of their 61 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:39What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Wiecek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-20 in 61
Wiecek
Wrong
gap of 21 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1885 vs Michna 1995
Michna
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 40% vs Michna 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 40% vs Michna 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek +1 · Michna +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Wiecek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wiecek form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.53 / Michna 2.38
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Wiecek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13070573
Wiecek1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 210 of 338
Up 2–0, closes it96% 85 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it79% 152 of 193
Michna2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog53% won 119 of 225
Down 0–1, comes back37% 44 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back14% 7 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek5wins
AwayMichna5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek50%4 of 8
AwayMichnan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek8Michna2n = 10Wiecek took 8 of 10
S2Wiecek3Michna7n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S3Wiecek4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S4Wiecek6Michna4n = 10Wiecek took 6 of 10
S5Wiecek2Michna3n = 5Michna took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekMichnaW − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.443.40.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime784 / 1425 vs 532 / 97755%54.5%784 / 1425 vs 532 / 977Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekWiecek 1.53/Michna 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.2%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 28 · 12:55A. Wiecek—129151192D. Michna—1011179113
WJul 28 · 06:05A. Wiecek—113129113D. Michna—911101172
WJul 15 · 11:40A. Wiecek—11411113D. Michna—711771
LJul 15 · 04:55A. Wiecek—91131172D. Michna—116119113
WJul 7 · 13:45A. Wiecek—111115113D. Michna—891781
LJul 7 · 03:00A. Wiecek—149113102D. Michna—1211911123
WJul 6 · 14:35A. Wiecek—811811113D. Michna—11411762
LJul 6 · 05:45A. Wiecek—118871D. Michna—71111113
LJul 6 · 03:45A. Wiecek—118871D. Michna—71111113
WJun 17 · 12:05A. Wiecek—11911113D. Michna—811851
A. Wiecek10
LSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113WSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172WSep 4 · 11:15A. Grela1.838680A. Wiecek1.831111113LSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113WSep 4 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.9111511113M. Jadczyk1.80911581LSep 4 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.9111311992A. Grela1.80811811113WSep 4 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.40111011113S. Dosz2.75712591LSep 4 · 03:00A. Wiecek2.00951151A. Dosz1.7311118113LSep 3 · 14:10A. Wiecek1.339980K. Kolodziej3.251111113
D. Michna10
LSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:55A. Grela1.6112611642D. Michna2.201011911113WSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480LSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771LSep 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.831112115123D. Michna1.83914911102WSep 4 · 04:55A. Grela1.738770D. Michna2.001111113LSep 4 · 03:25S. Dosz2.2511311113D. Michna1.57911491LSep 3 · 13:45P. David1.4413711143D. Michna2.6311113121
Upcoming Matches
A. Wiecek1 of 1 neutral
D. Michna
Nothing scheduled
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